2022 United States Senate election in Alaska
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Elections in Alaska |
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The 2022 United States Senate election in Alaska will be held on November 8, 2022. Incumbent three-term Republican U.S. Senator Lisa Murkowski is running for reelection to a fourth term.
After the voter approval of Ballot Measure 2 during the 2020 elections in Alaska, this will be the first U.S. Senate election in Alaska held under a new election process. All candidates will run in a nonpartisan blanket top-four primary on August 16, 2022,[1] and the top four candidates will advance to the general election. Voters will then utilize ranked-choice voting during the general election.[2]
On March 16, 2021, the Alaska Republican Party voted to censure Murkowski and announced that it would recruit a Republican challenger in the 2022 election cycle.[3][4] Murkowski's opposition to some of his initiatives and her vote for conviction during his second impeachment trial made former U.S. President Donald Trump pledge to campaign against her in 2022.[5][6]
Murkowski was appointed to the Senate in 2002 by her father, Frank Murkowski, who had just resigned from the seat himself after he had been elected Governor of Alaska. Defeated in the Republican primary in the 2010 election,[7] she went on to win the general election as a write-in candidate, one of only two U.S. senators to have ever done so, the only other time occurring in 1954.[8][9]
Candidates
Republican Party
Advanced to general
- Lisa Murkowski, incumbent U.S. senator[10]
- Kelly Tshibaka, former commissioner of the Alaska Department of Administration[11]
Eliminated in primary
- Buzz Kelley, retired mechanic[12]
- Sam Merrill, businessman[12]
- Pat Nolin[12]
- John Schiess, perennial candidate[13]
- Kendall L. Shorkey[13]
- Karl Speights, retired U.S. Air Force officer and advisor to Donald Trump's 2020 presidential campaign[14]
Disqualified
- Sam Little, musician, truck driver, National Guard veteran and candidate for governor of Alaska in 2010[14]
Declined
- Mike Dunleavy, governor of Alaska[15] (running for re-election)[16]
- Sarah Palin, former governor of Alaska and nominee for vice president of the United States in 2008 (running for U.S. House)[17][18]
- Bob Lochner, mechanic and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016[19]
Democratic Party
Advanced to general
Eliminated in primary
- Edgar Blatchford, professor, former mayor of Seward, and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016 and 2020[22]
- Ivan R. Taylor[23]
Withdrew
- Elvi Gray-Jackson, state senator for District I and former Anchorage Assembly member (running for re-election)[24][25][26]
Declined
- Mark Begich, former U.S. senator[22]
Libertarian Party
Eliminated in primary
- Sean Thorne, veteran[27]
Alaskan Independence Party
Eliminated in primary
- Dustin Darden, city maintenance worker and perennial candidate[14]
- Joe Stephens[28]
Declined
- John Howe, machinist and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2020 (running for governor)[22]
Independents
Eliminated in primary
- Dave Darden, perennial candidate[28]
- Shoshana Gungurstein, businesswoman
- Sid Hill, political gadfly and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2014[28]
- Jeremy Keller, television personality[13]
- Huhnkie Lee, attorney, army veteran and Republican candidate for Alaska Senate in 2020[14]
Declined
- Al Gross, orthopedic surgeon, commercial fisherman, son of former Alaska Attorney General Avrum Gross, and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2020 (running for U.S. House)[29][30]
Endorsements
- Organizations
- Executive branch officials
- George W. Bush, 43rd President of the United States (2001–2009) and former Governor of Texas (1995–2000)[32]
- Governors
- Larry Hogan, Governor of Maryland (2015–present)[33]
- U.S. Senators
- John Barrasso, U.S. Senator from Wyoming (2007–present)[34]
- Susan Collins, U.S. Senator from Maine (1997–present)[35]
- Joni Ernst, U.S. Senator from Iowa (2015–present)[35]
- John Thune, U.S. Senator from South Dakota (2005–present), Senate Minority Whip (2021–present), former Senate Majority Whip (2019–2021) and former U.S. Representative from SD-AL (1997–2003)[36]
- Joe Manchin, U.S. Senator from West Virginia (2010–present) and former Governor of West Virginia (2005–2010) (Democratic)[37]
- Mitch McConnell, U.S Senator from Kentucky (1985–present), Senate Minority Leader (2021–present, 2007–2015), and former Senate Majority Leader (2015–2021)[38]
- Rick Scott, U.S. Senator from Florida (2019–present) and 45th Governor of Florida (2011–2019)[39]
- Dan Sullivan, U.S. Senator from Alaska (2015–present) and former Alaska Attorney General (2009–2010)[40]
- John Cornyn, U.S. Senator from Texas (2002–present), former Senate Majority Whip (2015–2019) and former Texas Attorney General (1999–2002)[41]
- Tim Scott, U.S. Senator from South Carolina (2013–present) and former U.S. Representative from SC-01 (2011–2013)[42]
- Angus King, U.S. Senator from Maine (2013–present) and former Governor of Maine (1995–2003) (Independent)[41]
- Kyrsten Sinema, U.S. Senator from Arizona (2019–present) and former U.S. Representative from AZ-09 (2013–2019)(Democratic)[41]
- Mark Warner, U.S. Senator from Virginia (2009–present) and former Governor of Virginia (2002–2006) (Democratic)[41]
- Jeanne Shaheen, U.S. Senator from New Hampshire (2009–present) and former Governor of New Hampshire (1997–2003) (Democratic)[41]
- State legislators
- Gary Stevens, state senator[43]
- Bryce Edgmon, state representative (Independent)[43]
- Dan Ortiz, state representative (Independent)[43]
- Zack Fields, state representative (Democratic)[43]
- Natasha von Imhof, state senator[44]
- Louise Stutes, state representative, Speaker of the Alaska House of Representatives[44]
- Adam Wool, state representative (Democratic)[44]
- Neal Foster, state representative (Democratic)[44]
- Political action committees
- Senate Leadership Fund[45]
- Organizations
- Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions[46]
- National Republican Senatorial Committee[39]
- National Education Association – Alaska[47]
- Renew America Movement[48]
- Pro-Israel America[49]
- Labor unions
- Executive branch officials
- Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States (2017–2021)[52]
- Justin R. Clark, former Director of the Office of Intergovernmental Affairs (2017–2018) and the Office of Public Liaison (2018)[53]
- Bill Stepien, former White House Director of Political Affairs (2017–2018)[53]
- Governors
- Kristi Noem, Governor of South Dakota (2019–present) and former U.S. Representative from SD-AL (2011–2019)[54]
- Individuals
- Tuckerman Babcock, political strategist and former chair of the Alaska Republican Party (2016–2018)[55]
- Charlie Kirk, political activist and founder of Turning Point USA[56]
- Corey Lewandowski, political operative, lobbyist, political commentator, and author[53]
- Brad Parscale, senior adviser for data and digital operations for Donald Trump's 2020 presidential campaign[53]
- Donald Trump Jr, businessman and son of former President Donald Trump[57]
- Organizations
- Alaska Republican Party[58]
- American Conservative Union[59]
- Campaign for Working Families[60]
- Family Research Council Action PAC[61]
- Maggie's List[62]
- Oil and Gas Workers' Association[63]
Primary election
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Edgar Blatchford (D) |
Elvi Gray-Jackson (D) |
Al Gross (D/I) |
John Howe (AIP) |
Lisa Murkowski (R) |
Sean Thorne (L) |
Kelly Tshibaka (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Moore Information Group (R) | March 2–7, 2022 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.0% | – | 16% | – | – | 38% | 4% | 28% | 4% | 10% |
Cygnal (R)[A] | March 29, 2021 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 3% | – | 18% | 6% | 19% | – | 34% | – | 21% |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Lisa Murkowski (incumbent) | 68,800 | 44.2 | |
Republican | Kelly Tshibaka | 61,994 | 39.8 | |
Democratic | Pat Chesbro | 9,620 | 6.2 | |
Republican | Buzz Kelley | 3,450 | 2.2 | |
Republican | Pat Nolin | 1,706 | 1.1 | |
Democratic | Ivan R. Taylor | 1,576 | 1.0 | |
Democratic | Edgar Blatchford | 1,539 | 1.0 | |
Republican | Sam Merrill | 1,312 | 0.8 | |
Libertarian | Sean Thorne | 1,181 | 0.8 | |
Independent | Shoshana Gungurstein | 683 | 0.4 | |
Independence | Joe Stephens | 680 | 0.4 | |
Republican | John Schiess | 639 | 0.4 | |
Independence | Dustin Darden | 546 | 0.4 | |
Republican | Kendall L. Shorkey | 538 | 0.3 | |
Republican | Karl Speights | 500 | 0.3 | |
Independent | Jeremy Keller | 348 | 0.2 | |
Independent | Sid Hill | 242 | 0.2 | |
Independent | Huhnkie Lee | 196 | 0.1 | |
Independent | Dave Darden | 162 | 0.1 | |
Total votes | 155,712 | 100.0 |
General election
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[65] | Solid R | March 4, 2022 |
Inside Elections[66] | Solid R | April 1, 2022 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[67] | Safe R | March 1, 2022 |
Politico[68] | Likely R | April 1, 2022 |
RCP[69] | Likely R | February 24, 2022 |
Fox News[70] | Solid R | May 12, 2022 |
DDHQ[71] | Solid R | July 20, 2022 |
538[72] | Solid R | June 30, 2022 |
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
RCV count |
Pat Chesbro (D) |
Dustin Darden (AIP) |
Elvi Gray-Jackson (D) |
Al Gross (D/I) |
John Howe (AIP) |
Joe Miller (L) |
Lisa Murkowski (R) |
Sarah Palin (R) |
Kelly Tshibaka (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alaska Survey Research | July 2–5, 2022 | 1,201 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 1 | 17% | 5% | – | 35% | – | 43% | – | ||||
2 | 20% | – | 36% | 45% | |||||||||||
3 | – | 52% | 48% | ||||||||||||
Cygnal (R)[A] | March 14–16, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 1 | – | 29% | – | 45% | 26% | – | |||||
? | 49% | – | 51% | – | |||||||||||
Alaska Survey Research | October 22–27, 2021 | 969 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 1 | – | 22% | – | 35% | 20% | 23% | – | ||||
2 | 23% | 42% | – | 35% | |||||||||||
3 | – | 60% | 40% | ||||||||||||
Alaska Survey Research | July 11–21, 2021 | 947 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 1 | – | 19% | – | 18% | 36% | – | 27% | – | |||
2 | 21% | – | 39% | 40% | |||||||||||
3 | – | 55% | 45% | ||||||||||||
Change Research (D)[B] | May 22–25, 2021 | 1,023 (LV) | ± 3.1% | BA | – | 25% | 4% | – | 19% | – | 39% | 1%[b] | 12% | ||
3[c] | 46% | – | – | 54% | – |
Lisa Murkowski vs. Kelly Tshibaka
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Lisa Murkowski (R) |
Kelly Tshibaka (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alaska Survey Research | April 16–21, 2022 | 1,208 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 55% | 45% | – |
Results
Party | Candidate | Round 1 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Votes | % | Transfer | |||
Democratic | Pat Chesbro | ||||
Republican | Lisa Murkowski (incumbent) | ||||
Republican | Kelly Tshibaka | ||||
TBD | |||||
Write-in | |||||
Total votes | |||||
Inactive ballots |
See also
- 2022 United States Senate elections
- 2022 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska
- 2022 Alaska gubernatorial election
- 2022 Alaska Senate election
- 2022 Alaska House of Representatives election
- 2022 Alaska elections
Notes
Partisan clients
- ^ a b This poll was sponsored by Kelly Tshibaka's campaign
- ^ This poll was sponsored by 314 Action
References
- ^ "Alaska Division of Elections, Primary Election Info".
- ^ Media, Andrew Kitchenman, KTOO and Alaska Public (November 18, 2020). "Alaska will have a new election system: Voters pass Ballot Measure 2". KTOO. Retrieved November 18, 2020.
{{cite web}}
: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link) - ^ Steinhauser, Paul (March 16, 2021). "Alaska GOP censures Murkowski, says it will recruit primary challenger". Fox News. Retrieved March 17, 2021.
- ^ "Lisa Murkowski censured by Alaska Republicans for voting to convict Trump". the Guardian. Associated Press. March 16, 2021. Retrieved March 17, 2021.
- ^ Desiderio, Andrew (June 4, 2020). "Trump vows to campaign against Murkowski after she backs Mattis". Politico. Retrieved June 4, 2020.
- ^ Acosta, Jim; Pellish, Aaron (March 6, 2021). "Trump says he'll campaign against Murkowski in Alaska next year". CNN. Retrieved March 6, 2021.
- ^ Bolstad, Erika (January 5, 2011). "After primary loss, write-in win, legal battle, Murkowski sworn in". McClatchy. Archived from the original on March 1, 2020.
- ^ Khan, Huma (November 16, 2010). "Lisa Murkowski Makes History, Wins Alaska Senate Race But Joe Miller Not Conceding". ABC News. Retrieved September 24, 2021.
- ^ "Miller Concedes Loss to Murkowski". www.cbsnews.com. December 31, 2010. Retrieved September 24, 2021.
- ^ "Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski to run in 2022; Trump backs rival". Associated Press. November 12, 2021. Retrieved November 12, 2021.
- ^ Becky Bohrer (March 29, 2021). "Republican announces run for Murkowski's Alaska Senate seat". Associated Press. Retrieved March 29, 2021.
- ^ a b c d "2022 Primary Candidate List". Alaska Division of Elections. Retrieved June 1, 2022.
- ^ a b c "Alaska Division of Elections Candidate List". April 25, 2022. Retrieved April 25, 2021.
- ^ a b c d Thiessen, Mark (April 27, 2021). "Alaska candidate shadowed by anti-gay article, election post". Associated Press. Anchorage. Archived from the original on June 12, 2021. Retrieved June 12, 2021.
The state elections office says others who have registered for Senate include Dustin Darden with the Alaskan Independence Party, Huhnkie Lee, who is undeclared, and Republicans Samuel Little and Karl Speights.
- ^ Lottsfeldt, Jim (August 12, 2020). "It sure looks like Dunleavy is running for U.S. Senate in 2022". The Midnight Sun.
- ^ Brooks, James (August 13, 2021). "Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy will run for re-election in 2022". Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved August 14, 2021.
- ^ "Sarah Palin Is Considering Running For Senate 'If God Wants Me To'—And Here We Go Again". Comic Sands. August 2, 2021. Retrieved August 2, 2021.
- ^ Ulloa, Jazmine; Peters, Jeremy W. (April 2, 2022). "Sarah Palin Announces She's Running for Congress in Alaska". The New York Times.
- ^ Kerry Picket (April 6, 2021). "Lisa Murkowski trails GOP challenger: Poll". Washington Examiner.
- ^ "A Mat-Su Democrat is running for US Senate in Alaska, potentially scrambling the campaign". Retrieved May 17, 2022.
- ^ "Chesbro For Alaska". Chesbro For Alaska. Retrieved June 7, 2022.
- ^ a b c "ALASKA STATEWIDE – SURVEY MEMORANDUM". www.politico.com. March 29, 2021. Retrieved May 4, 2021.
- ^ "Taylor4Alaska.org". www.taylor4alaska.org. Retrieved June 7, 2022.
- ^ Landfield, Jeff (July 27, 2021). "Democratic State Senator Elvi Gray-Jackson considering run for U.S. Senate". The Alaska Landmine. Retrieved July 28, 2021.
- ^ "Anchorage state Sen. Elvi Gray-Jackson is 1st Democrat to enter race for U.S. Senate".
- ^ Democratic State Sen. Elvi Gray-Jackson makes it official: She is withdrawing from the Alaska U.S. Senate race in order to run for re-election to the Alaska Legislature. James Brooks on Twitter
- ^ "Sean Thorne FEC Statement of Candidacy". Retrieved December 23, 2021.
- ^ a b c "Statewide campaign coffers are filling up". Juneau Empire. November 3, 2021. Retrieved March 5, 2022.
- ^ Jacob Rubashkin (April 12, 2021). "Alaska Senate: Al Gross, 2020 Nominee, Considering Another Run". Inside Elections. Retrieved April 12, 2021.
- ^ Matt Hickman (March 19, 2022). "Source: Gross running for Congressional seat vacated by Young's passing". Anchorage Press. Retrieved March 21, 2022.
- ^ Samuels, Iris (August 11, 2022). "In Alaska's U.S. Senate race, Murkowski and Tshibaka look ahead to November". Anchorage Daily News. Archived from the original on August 13, 2022. Retrieved August 16, 2022.
- ^ Greenwood, Max (February 1, 2022). "Ex-President Bush backs two high-profile Republicans slammed by Trump". TheHill.
- ^ "Hogan to headline fundraiser for Murkowski in DC". The Hill. June 15, 2022.
- ^ Niedzwiadek, Nick (March 7, 2021). "Sen. Barrasso backs Murkowski after Trump targets her". Politico.
- ^ a b Suzanne Downing (April 16, 2021). "Murkowski raises $380,687 in first quarter, as Tshibaka raises $214,844 in three days". Must Read Alaska.
- ^ "GOP senator accuses Trump allies of embracing 'cancel culture'". The American Independent. Associated Press. February 19, 2021.
- ^ Schnell, Mychael (February 6, 2022). "Manchin crosses party lines in officially endorsing Murkowski". The Hill.
- ^ Alex Rogers (March 30, 2021). "Republican Kelly Tshibaka launches Senate campaign against Lisa Murkowski". CNN.
- ^ a b Wang, Amy B. "Defying Trump, Rick Scott backs McConnell and Murkowski, tiptoes around false claims about election fraud". The Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Archived from the original on November 8, 2021. Retrieved November 8, 2021.
- ^ Ardrey, Taylor (March 28, 2021). "Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivan said he'll 'support' Sen. Lisa Murkowski's reelection". Business Insider.
- ^ a b c d e "Democrats for Murkowski: Alaska Republican counts her fans across the aisle". POLITICO. POLITICO. July 18, 2022. Retrieved July 25, 2022.
- ^ https://mobile.twitter.com/votetimscott/status/1554884048836870144 [bare URL]
- ^ a b c d Suzanne Downing (January 11, 2022). "Reps. Zack Fields, Bryce Edgmon, Dan Ortiz, and Sen. Gary Stevens endorse Murkowski". Retrieved January 25, 2022.
- ^ a b c d Downing, Suzanne (February 8, 2022). "Lisa gets support from State Sen. von Imhof; Tshibaka brings in Alaska Outdoor Council endorsement for Senate". Must Read Alaska. Archived from the original on February 8, 2022. Retrieved February 11, 2022.
- ^ Paul Steinhauser (April 9, 2021). "Top pro-Senate GOP PAC endorses Murkowski's 2022 reelection bid". Fox News. Retrieved April 11, 2021.
- ^ "Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions Announces Second Round of Congressional Endorsements for the 2022 Election Cycle". cresenergy.com. Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions. May 4, 2022. Retrieved June 7, 2022.
- ^ "Notes from the trail: Palin stumps in Georgia and Murkowski endorsed by NEA-Alaska". May 22, 2022.
- ^ "Anti-Trump Republicans endorsing vulnerable Democrats to prevent GOP takeover". The Hill. October 14, 2021.
- ^ "Endorsed Candidates". proisraelamerica.org.
- ^ Brooks, James (June 23, 2022). "Alaska AFL-CIO endorses Walker, Murkowski, Peltola". Retrieved June 27, 2022.
- ^ "Notes from the trail: KINY candidate forum, calm on surface, filled with back drama, body language". August 2, 2022.
- ^ Axelrod, Tal (June 18, 2021). "Trump endorses Murkowski challenger". TheHill. Retrieved June 18, 2021.
- ^ a b c d Alex Isenstadt (March 29, 2021). "Trump alums sign up with new Murkowski opponent". Politico.
- ^ "Gov. Kristi Noem endorsing Kelly Tshibaka for Senate". May 12, 2022.
- ^ Surreal ValeCity (April 5, 2021). "Former Republican Chairmen dndorse Kelly Tshibaka". www.surrealvalecity.com.
- ^ "Notes from the trail: Walker picks up new co-chairs". July 23, 2022.
- ^ Downing, Suzanne (August 6, 2021). "Donald Trump Jr. jumps in, supports Kelly Tshibaka for Senate". Must Read Alaska. Archived from the original on August 10, 2021. Retrieved August 10, 2021.
- ^ Celine Castronuovo (July 10, 2021). "Alaska GOP endorses Murkowski primary challenger". The Hill. Retrieved July 10, 2021.
- ^ Bratton, Regina (September 29, 2021). "The Conservative Political Action Coalition (CPAC) today announced its endorsement Kelly Tshibaka for U.S. Senator of the State of Alaska". American Conservative Union. Retrieved June 26, 2022.
- ^ "Endorsed Candidates". Campaign for Working Families. Retrieved August 3, 2022.
- ^ "FRC Action PAC Endorses Kelly Tshibaka for U.S. Senate in Alaska". June 27, 2022. Retrieved August 13, 2022.
- ^ Manchester, Julia (December 22, 2021). "Conservative women's group backing Murkowski challenger". The Hill. Archived from the original on December 22, 2021. Retrieved December 22, 2021.
- ^ Downing, Suzanne (March 9, 2022). "Oil and Gas Workers Association endorses Tshibaka". Mustreadalaska.com. Retrieved March 18, 2022.
- ^ "Alaska Senate Primary Election Results". National Election Pool. NBC News. August 17, 2022. Retrieved August 17, 2022.
- ^ "2022 Senate Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 14, 2021.
- ^ "Senate ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved January 18, 2021.
- ^ "2022 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved January 28, 2021.
- ^ "Alaska Senate Race 2022". Politico. April 1, 2022.
- ^ "Battle for the Senate 2022". RCP. January 10, 2022.
- ^ "2022 Election Forecast". Fox News. May 12, 2022. Retrieved May 12, 2022.
- ^ "2022 Election Forecast". DDHQ. July 20, 2022. Retrieved July 20, 2022.
- ^ "2022 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. June 30, 2022. Retrieved June 30, 2022.
External links
Official campaign websites