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*[[Angus King]], [[U.S. Senator]] from [[Maine]] (2013–present) and former [[Governor of Maine]] (1995–2003) ''(Independent)''<ref name="Democrats4Murkowski">{{cite news |title=Democrats for Murkowski: Alaska Republican counts her fans across the aisle |url=https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/18/democrats-murkowski-alaska-republican-fans-00046159 |access-date=July 25, 2022 |work=POLITICO |agency=POLITICO |date=July 18, 2022 |language=en}}</ref>
*[[Angus King]], [[U.S. Senator]] from [[Maine]] (2013–present) and former [[Governor of Maine]] (1995–2003) ''(Independent)''<ref name="Democrats4Murkowski">{{cite news |title=Democrats for Murkowski: Alaska Republican counts her fans across the aisle |url=https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/18/democrats-murkowski-alaska-republican-fans-00046159 |access-date=July 25, 2022 |work=POLITICO |agency=POLITICO |date=July 18, 2022 |language=en}}</ref>
*[[Kyrsten Sinema]], [[U.S. Senator]] from [[Arizona]] (2019–present) and former U.S. Representative from [[Arizona's 9th congressional district|AZ-09]] (2013–2019)''(Democratic)''<ref name="Democrats4Murkowski"/>
*[[Kyrsten Sinema]], [[U.S. Senator]] from [[Arizona]] (2019–present) and former U.S. Representative from [[Arizona's 9th congressional district|AZ-09]] (2013–2019)''(Democratic)''<ref name="Democrats4Murkowski"/>
*[[Mark Warner]], [[U.S. Senator]] from [[Virginia]] (2009–present) and former [[Governor of Virginia]] (2001–2015) ''(Democratic)''<ref name="Democrats4Murkowski"/>
*[[Mark Warner]], [[U.S. Senator]] from [[Virginia]] (2009–present) and former [[Governor of Virginia]] (2002–2006) ''(Democratic)''<ref name="Democrats4Murkowski"/>
*[[Jeanne Shaheen]], [[U.S. Senator]] from [[New Hampshire]] (2009–present) and former [[Governor of New Hampshire]] (1997–2003) ''(Democratic)''<ref name="Democrats4Murkowski"/>
*[[Jeanne Shaheen]], [[U.S. Senator]] from [[New Hampshire]] (2009–present) and former [[Governor of New Hampshire]] (1997–2003) ''(Democratic)''<ref name="Democrats4Murkowski"/>
;State legislators
;State legislators

Revision as of 08:15, 18 August 2022

2022 United States Senate election in Alaska

← 2016 November 8, 2022 2028 →
 
Candidate Lisa Murkowski Kelly Tshibaka
Party Republican Republican

 
Candidate Pat Chesbro TBD
Party Democratic

Incumbent U.S. senator

Lisa Murkowski
Republican



The 2022 United States Senate election in Alaska will be held on November 8, 2022. Incumbent three-term Republican U.S. Senator Lisa Murkowski is running for reelection to a fourth term.

After the voter approval of Ballot Measure 2 during the 2020 elections in Alaska, this will be the first U.S. Senate election in Alaska held under a new election process. All candidates will run in a nonpartisan blanket top-four primary on August 16, 2022,[1] and the top four candidates will advance to the general election. Voters will then utilize ranked-choice voting during the general election.[2]

On March 16, 2021, the Alaska Republican Party voted to censure Murkowski and announced that it would recruit a Republican challenger in the 2022 election cycle.[3][4] Murkowski's opposition to some of his initiatives and her vote for conviction during his second impeachment trial made former U.S. President Donald Trump pledge to campaign against her in 2022.[5][6]

Murkowski was appointed to the Senate in 2002 by her father, Frank Murkowski, who had just resigned from the seat himself after he had been elected Governor of Alaska. Defeated in the Republican primary in the 2010 election,[7] she went on to win the general election as a write-in candidate, one of only two U.S. senators to have ever done so, the only other time occurring in 1954.[8][9]

Candidates

Republican Party

Advanced to general

Eliminated in primary

Disqualified

Declined

Democratic Party

Advanced to general

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Declined

Libertarian Party

Eliminated in primary

  • Sean Thorne, veteran[27]

Alaskan Independence Party

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Independents

Eliminated in primary

  • Dave Darden, perennial candidate[28]
  • Shoshana Gungurstein, businesswoman
  • Sid Hill, political gadfly and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2014[28]
  • Jeremy Keller, television personality[13]
  • Huhnkie Lee, attorney, army veteran and Republican candidate for Alaska Senate in 2020[14]

Declined

Endorsements

Pat Chesbro (D)
Lisa Murkowski (R)
Executive branch officials
Governors
U.S. Senators
State legislators
Political action committees
  • Senate Leadership Fund[45]
Organizations
Labor unions
Kelly Tshibaka (R)
Executive branch officials
Governors
Individuals
Organizations

Primary election

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Edgar
Blatchford
(D)
Elvi
Gray-Jackson
(D)
Al
Gross
(D/I)
John
Howe
(AIP)
Lisa
Murkowski
(R)
Sean
Thorne
(L)
Kelly
Tshibaka
(R)
Other Undecided
Moore Information Group (R) March 2–7, 2022 400 (LV) ± 5.0% 16% 38% 4% 28% 4% 10%
Cygnal (R)[A] March 29, 2021 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 3% 18% 6% 19% 34% 21%

Results

Primary election results[12][64]
82%
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Lisa Murkowski (incumbent) 68,800 44.2
Republican Kelly Tshibaka 61,994 39.8
Democratic Pat Chesbro 9,620 6.2
Republican Buzz Kelley 3,450 2.2
Republican Pat Nolin 1,706 1.1
Democratic Ivan R. Taylor 1,576 1.0
Democratic Edgar Blatchford 1,539 1.0
Republican Sam Merrill 1,312 0.8
Libertarian Sean Thorne 1,181 0.8
Independent Shoshana Gungurstein 683 0.4
Independence Joe Stephens 680 0.4
Republican John Schiess 639 0.4
Independence Dustin Darden 546 0.4
Republican Kendall L. Shorkey 538 0.3
Republican Karl Speights 500 0.3
Independent Jeremy Keller 348 0.2
Independent Sid Hill 242 0.2
Independent Huhnkie Lee 196 0.1
Independent Dave Darden 162 0.1
Total votes 155,712 100.0

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[65] Solid R March 4, 2022
Inside Elections[66] Solid R April 1, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[67] Safe R March 1, 2022
Politico[68] Likely R April 1, 2022
RCP[69] Likely R February 24, 2022
Fox News[70] Solid R May 12, 2022
DDHQ[71] Solid R July 20, 2022
538[72] Solid R June 30, 2022

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
RCV
count
Pat
Chesbro
(D)
Dustin
Darden
(AIP)
Elvi
Gray-Jackson
(D)
Al
Gross
(D/I)
John
Howe
(AIP)
Joe
Miller
(L)
Lisa
Murkowski
(R)
Sarah
Palin
(R)
Kelly
Tshibaka
(R)
Other Undecided
Alaska Survey Research July 2–5, 2022 1,201 (LV) ± 2.9% 1 17% 5% 35% 43%
2 20% 36% 45%
3 52% 48%
Cygnal (R)[A] March 14–16, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.2% 1 29% 45% 26%
? 49% 51%
Alaska Survey Research October 22–27, 2021 969 (RV) ± 3.2% 1 22% 35% 20% 23%
2 23% 42% 35%
3 60% 40%
Alaska Survey Research July 11–21, 2021 947 (LV) ± 3.2% 1 19% 18% 36% 27%
2 21% 39% 40%
3 55% 45%
Change Research (D)[B] May 22–25, 2021 1,023 (LV) ± 3.1% BA 25% 4% 19% 39% 1%[b] 12%
3[c] 46% 54%

Lisa Murkowski vs. Kelly Tshibaka

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Lisa
Murkowski (R)
Kelly
Tshibaka (R)
Undecided
Alaska Survey Research April 16–21, 2022 1,208 (LV) ± 2.9% 55% 45%

Results

2022 United States Senate election in Alaska
Party Candidate Round 1
Votes % Transfer
Democratic Pat Chesbro
Republican Lisa Murkowski (incumbent)
Republican Kelly Tshibaka
TBD
Write-in
Total votes
Inactive ballots

See also

Notes

  1. ^ a b c Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ Would not vote with 1%
  3. ^ Excluding undecided voters

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b This poll was sponsored by Kelly Tshibaka's campaign
  2. ^ This poll was sponsored by 314 Action

References

  1. ^ "Alaska Division of Elections, Primary Election Info".
  2. ^ Media, Andrew Kitchenman, KTOO and Alaska Public (November 18, 2020). "Alaska will have a new election system: Voters pass Ballot Measure 2". KTOO. Retrieved November 18, 2020.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  3. ^ Steinhauser, Paul (March 16, 2021). "Alaska GOP censures Murkowski, says it will recruit primary challenger". Fox News. Retrieved March 17, 2021.
  4. ^ "Lisa Murkowski censured by Alaska Republicans for voting to convict Trump". the Guardian. Associated Press. March 16, 2021. Retrieved March 17, 2021.
  5. ^ Desiderio, Andrew (June 4, 2020). "Trump vows to campaign against Murkowski after she backs Mattis". Politico. Retrieved June 4, 2020.
  6. ^ Acosta, Jim; Pellish, Aaron (March 6, 2021). "Trump says he'll campaign against Murkowski in Alaska next year". CNN. Retrieved March 6, 2021.
  7. ^ Bolstad, Erika (January 5, 2011). "After primary loss, write-in win, legal battle, Murkowski sworn in". McClatchy. Archived from the original on March 1, 2020.
  8. ^ Khan, Huma (November 16, 2010). "Lisa Murkowski Makes History, Wins Alaska Senate Race But Joe Miller Not Conceding". ABC News. Retrieved September 24, 2021.
  9. ^ "Miller Concedes Loss to Murkowski". www.cbsnews.com. December 31, 2010. Retrieved September 24, 2021.
  10. ^ "Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski to run in 2022; Trump backs rival". Associated Press. November 12, 2021. Retrieved November 12, 2021.
  11. ^ Becky Bohrer (March 29, 2021). "Republican announces run for Murkowski's Alaska Senate seat". Associated Press. Retrieved March 29, 2021.
  12. ^ a b c d "2022 Primary Candidate List". Alaska Division of Elections. Retrieved June 1, 2022.
  13. ^ a b c "Alaska Division of Elections Candidate List". April 25, 2022. Retrieved April 25, 2021.
  14. ^ a b c d Thiessen, Mark (April 27, 2021). "Alaska candidate shadowed by anti-gay article, election post". Associated Press. Anchorage. Archived from the original on June 12, 2021. Retrieved June 12, 2021. The state elections office says others who have registered for Senate include Dustin Darden with the Alaskan Independence Party, Huhnkie Lee, who is undeclared, and Republicans Samuel Little and Karl Speights.
  15. ^ Lottsfeldt, Jim (August 12, 2020). "It sure looks like Dunleavy is running for U.S. Senate in 2022". The Midnight Sun.
  16. ^ Brooks, James (August 13, 2021). "Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy will run for re-election in 2022". Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved August 14, 2021.
  17. ^ "Sarah Palin Is Considering Running For Senate 'If God Wants Me To'—And Here We Go Again". Comic Sands. August 2, 2021. Retrieved August 2, 2021.
  18. ^ Ulloa, Jazmine; Peters, Jeremy W. (April 2, 2022). "Sarah Palin Announces She's Running for Congress in Alaska". The New York Times.
  19. ^ Kerry Picket (April 6, 2021). "Lisa Murkowski trails GOP challenger: Poll". Washington Examiner.
  20. ^ "A Mat-Su Democrat is running for US Senate in Alaska, potentially scrambling the campaign". Retrieved May 17, 2022.
  21. ^ "Chesbro For Alaska". Chesbro For Alaska. Retrieved June 7, 2022.
  22. ^ a b c "ALASKA STATEWIDE – SURVEY MEMORANDUM". www.politico.com. March 29, 2021. Retrieved May 4, 2021.
  23. ^ "Taylor4Alaska.org". www.taylor4alaska.org. Retrieved June 7, 2022.
  24. ^ Landfield, Jeff (July 27, 2021). "Democratic State Senator Elvi Gray-Jackson considering run for U.S. Senate". The Alaska Landmine. Retrieved July 28, 2021.
  25. ^ "Anchorage state Sen. Elvi Gray-Jackson is 1st Democrat to enter race for U.S. Senate".
  26. ^ Democratic State Sen. Elvi Gray-Jackson makes it official: She is withdrawing from the Alaska U.S. Senate race in order to run for re-election to the Alaska Legislature. James Brooks on Twitter
  27. ^ "Sean Thorne FEC Statement of Candidacy". Retrieved December 23, 2021.
  28. ^ a b c "Statewide campaign coffers are filling up". Juneau Empire. November 3, 2021. Retrieved March 5, 2022.
  29. ^ Jacob Rubashkin (April 12, 2021). "Alaska Senate: Al Gross, 2020 Nominee, Considering Another Run". Inside Elections. Retrieved April 12, 2021.
  30. ^ Matt Hickman (March 19, 2022). "Source: Gross running for Congressional seat vacated by Young's passing". Anchorage Press. Retrieved March 21, 2022.
  31. ^ Samuels, Iris (August 11, 2022). "In Alaska's U.S. Senate race, Murkowski and Tshibaka look ahead to November". Anchorage Daily News. Archived from the original on August 13, 2022. Retrieved August 16, 2022.
  32. ^ Greenwood, Max (February 1, 2022). "Ex-President Bush backs two high-profile Republicans slammed by Trump". TheHill.
  33. ^ "Hogan to headline fundraiser for Murkowski in DC". The Hill. June 15, 2022.
  34. ^ Niedzwiadek, Nick (March 7, 2021). "Sen. Barrasso backs Murkowski after Trump targets her". Politico.
  35. ^ a b Suzanne Downing (April 16, 2021). "Murkowski raises $380,687 in first quarter, as Tshibaka raises $214,844 in three days". Must Read Alaska.
  36. ^ "GOP senator accuses Trump allies of embracing 'cancel culture'". The American Independent. Associated Press. February 19, 2021.
  37. ^ Schnell, Mychael (February 6, 2022). "Manchin crosses party lines in officially endorsing Murkowski". The Hill.
  38. ^ Alex Rogers (March 30, 2021). "Republican Kelly Tshibaka launches Senate campaign against Lisa Murkowski". CNN.
  39. ^ a b Wang, Amy B. "Defying Trump, Rick Scott backs McConnell and Murkowski, tiptoes around false claims about election fraud". The Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Archived from the original on November 8, 2021. Retrieved November 8, 2021.
  40. ^ Ardrey, Taylor (March 28, 2021). "Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivan said he'll 'support' Sen. Lisa Murkowski's reelection". Business Insider.
  41. ^ a b c d e "Democrats for Murkowski: Alaska Republican counts her fans across the aisle". POLITICO. POLITICO. July 18, 2022. Retrieved July 25, 2022.
  42. ^ https://mobile.twitter.com/votetimscott/status/1554884048836870144 [bare URL]
  43. ^ a b c d Suzanne Downing (January 11, 2022). "Reps. Zack Fields, Bryce Edgmon, Dan Ortiz, and Sen. Gary Stevens endorse Murkowski". Retrieved January 25, 2022.
  44. ^ a b c d Downing, Suzanne (February 8, 2022). "Lisa gets support from State Sen. von Imhof; Tshibaka brings in Alaska Outdoor Council endorsement for Senate". Must Read Alaska. Archived from the original on February 8, 2022. Retrieved February 11, 2022.
  45. ^ Paul Steinhauser (April 9, 2021). "Top pro-Senate GOP PAC endorses Murkowski's 2022 reelection bid". Fox News. Retrieved April 11, 2021.
  46. ^ "Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions Announces Second Round of Congressional Endorsements for the 2022 Election Cycle". cresenergy.com. Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions. May 4, 2022. Retrieved June 7, 2022.
  47. ^ "Notes from the trail: Palin stumps in Georgia and Murkowski endorsed by NEA-Alaska". May 22, 2022.
  48. ^ "Anti-Trump Republicans endorsing vulnerable Democrats to prevent GOP takeover". The Hill. October 14, 2021.
  49. ^ "Endorsed Candidates". proisraelamerica.org.
  50. ^ Brooks, James (June 23, 2022). "Alaska AFL-CIO endorses Walker, Murkowski, Peltola". Retrieved June 27, 2022.
  51. ^ "Notes from the trail: KINY candidate forum, calm on surface, filled with back drama, body language". August 2, 2022.
  52. ^ Axelrod, Tal (June 18, 2021). "Trump endorses Murkowski challenger". TheHill. Retrieved June 18, 2021.
  53. ^ a b c d Alex Isenstadt (March 29, 2021). "Trump alums sign up with new Murkowski opponent". Politico.
  54. ^ "Gov. Kristi Noem endorsing Kelly Tshibaka for Senate". May 12, 2022.
  55. ^ Surreal ValeCity (April 5, 2021). "Former Republican Chairmen dndorse Kelly Tshibaka". www.surrealvalecity.com.
  56. ^ "Notes from the trail: Walker picks up new co-chairs". July 23, 2022.
  57. ^ Downing, Suzanne (August 6, 2021). "Donald Trump Jr. jumps in, supports Kelly Tshibaka for Senate". Must Read Alaska. Archived from the original on August 10, 2021. Retrieved August 10, 2021.
  58. ^ Celine Castronuovo (July 10, 2021). "Alaska GOP endorses Murkowski primary challenger". The Hill. Retrieved July 10, 2021.
  59. ^ Bratton, Regina (September 29, 2021). "The Conservative Political Action Coalition (CPAC) today announced its endorsement Kelly Tshibaka for U.S. Senator of the State of Alaska". American Conservative Union. Retrieved June 26, 2022.
  60. ^ "Endorsed Candidates". Campaign for Working Families. Retrieved August 3, 2022.
  61. ^ "FRC Action PAC Endorses Kelly Tshibaka for U.S. Senate in Alaska". June 27, 2022. Retrieved August 13, 2022.
  62. ^ Manchester, Julia (December 22, 2021). "Conservative women's group backing Murkowski challenger". The Hill. Archived from the original on December 22, 2021. Retrieved December 22, 2021.
  63. ^ Downing, Suzanne (March 9, 2022). "Oil and Gas Workers Association endorses Tshibaka". Mustreadalaska.com. Retrieved March 18, 2022.
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  65. ^ "2022 Senate Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 14, 2021.
  66. ^ "Senate ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved January 18, 2021.
  67. ^ "2022 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved January 28, 2021.
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  69. ^ "Battle for the Senate 2022". RCP. January 10, 2022.
  70. ^ "2022 Election Forecast". Fox News. May 12, 2022. Retrieved May 12, 2022.
  71. ^ "2022 Election Forecast". DDHQ. July 20, 2022. Retrieved July 20, 2022.
  72. ^ "2022 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. June 30, 2022. Retrieved June 30, 2022.

External links

Official campaign websites