Misery index (economics)

The misery index is an economic indicator, created by economist Arthur Okun. The index helps determine how the average citizen is doing economically and is calculated by adding the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate to the annual inflation rate. It is assumed that both a higher rate of unemployment and a worsening of inflation create economic and social costs for a country.[1]

Misery Index
  Misery Index
  Unemployment rate
  Inflation rate CPI

Misery index by US presidential administration

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Index = Unemployment rate + Inflation rate (lower number is better)
President Time Period Average Low High Start End Change
Harry Truman 1948–1952 7.88 03.45 – Dec 1952 13.63 – Jan 1948 13.63 3.45 -10.18
Dwight D. Eisenhower 1953–1960 9.26 02.97 – Jul 1953 10.98 – Apr 1958 3.28 9.96 +5.68
John F. Kennedy 1961–1963 7.14 06.40 – Jul 1962 08.38 – Jul 1961 8.31 6.82 -1.49
Lyndon B. Johnson 1963–1968 6.77 05.70 – Nov 1965 08.19 – Jul 1968 7.02 8.12 +1.10
Richard Nixon 1969–1974 10.57 07.80 – Jan 1969 17.01 – Jul 1974 7.80 17.01 +9.21
Gerald Ford 1974–1976 16.00 12.66 – Dec 1976 19.90 – Jan 1975 16.36 12.66 -3.70
Jimmy Carter 1977–1980 16.26 12.60 – Apr 1978 21.98 – Jun 1980 12.72 19.72 +7.00
Ronald Reagan 1981–1988 12.19 07.70 – Dec 1986 19.33 – Jan 1981 19.33 9.72 -9.61
George H. W. Bush 1989–1992 10.68 09.64 – Sep 1989 14.47 – Nov 1990 10.07 10.30 +0.23
Bill Clinton 1993–2000 7.80 05.74 – Apr 1998 10.56 – Jan 1993 10.56 7.29 -3.27
George W. Bush 2001–2008 8.11 05.71 – Oct 2006 11.47 – Aug 2008 7.93 7.39 -0.54
Barack Obama 2009–2016 8.83 05.06 – Sep 2015
12.87 – Sep 2011 7.83 6.77 -1.06
Donald Trump 2017–2020 6.91 05.21 – Sep 2019
15.03 – Apr 2020 7.30 8.06 +0.76
Joe Biden 2021–2023 10.16 06.79 – Feb 2024
11.29 – Jun 2021 7.70 6.79 -0.91

[2]

Variations

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Harvard Economist Robert Barro created what he dubbed the "Barro Misery Index" (BMI), in 1999.[3] The BMI takes the sum of the inflation and unemployment rates, and adds to that the interest rate, plus (minus) the shortfall (surplus) between the actual and trend rate of GDP growth.

In the late 2000s, Johns Hopkins economist Steve Hanke built upon Barro's misery index and began applying it to countries beyond the United States. His modified misery index is the sum of the interest, inflation, and unemployment rates, minus the year-over-year percent change in per-capita GDP growth.[4]

In 2013 Hanke constructed a World Table of Misery Index Scores by exclusively relying on data reported by the Economist Intelligence Unit.[5] This table includes a list of 89 countries, ranked from worst to best, with data as of December 31, 2013 (see table below).

 
World Table of Misery Index Scores as of December 31, 2013.

Political economists Jonathan Nitzan and Shimshon Bichler found a negative correlation between a similar "stagflation index" and corporate amalgamation (i.e. mergers and acquisitions) in the United States since the 1930s. In their theory, stagflation is a form of political economic sabotage employed by corporations to achieve differential accumulation, in this case as an alternative to amalgamation when merger and acquisition opportunities have run out.[6]

Hanke's Misery Index

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Ranked from worst to best
Country/Territory 2020[7] 2022[8]
  Venezuela 3827.6 330.8
  Zimbabwe 547.0 414.7
  Syria N/A 225.4
  Yemen N/A 116.2
  Ghana N/A 86.8
  Barbados N/A 31.5
  Sudan 193.9 176.1
  Lebanon 177.1 190.337
  Suriname 145.3 80.5
  Libya 105.7 60.3
  Argentina 95.0 156.192
  Iran 92.1 73.3
  Angola 60.6 93.518
  Madagascar 60.4 63.6
  Brazil 53.4 61.785
  South Africa 49.3 83.492
  Haiti 48.9 95.4
  Kyrgyzstan 47.1 40.977
  Nigeria 45.6 47.2
  Eswatini 42.7 63.1
  Lesotho 42.4 51.6
  Peru 42.2 34.835
  Zambia 41.6 32
  South Sudan 41.2 176.1
  Turkey 41.2 101.601
  Namibia 40.7 55.7
  Gabon 40.5 62.4
  Congo 40.3 61.5
  Botswana 39.7 64.023
  Iraq 39.5 42.3
  São Tomé and Príncipe 39.3 62.3
  Liberia 39.1 26.32
  Jamaica 38.6 41
  Malawi 37.9 63.5
  Jordan 37.9 56.3
  Guinea 36.8 38.9
  Uruguay 36.7 30.296
  Armenia 36.7 33.7
  Montenegro 36.2 52.653
  Tunisia 36.1 46.905
  Ethiopia 36.1 61
  Honduras 35.8 42.2
  India 35.8 22.58
  Panama 35.7 19.21
  Colombia 35.4 44.531
  Mongolia 35.4 42.98
  Georgia 34.8 52.5
  Uzbekistan 34.1 44.4
  Dominican Republic 34.0 27.2
  Ukraine 33.5 110.003
  Saudi Arabia 33.1 24.603
  Algeria 32.7 50.2
  Pakistan 32.5 52.6
  Costa Rica 32.4 37.077
  Paraguay 32.0 43.7
  Trinidad and Tobago 31.5 21.98
  Greece 31.3 31.128
  Mauritius 30.4 29.884
  Gambia 30.2 41.2
  Cape Verde 29.9 26.3
  Bolivia 29.9 18.9
  Kazakhstan 29.5 43.854
  Guatemala 29.3 26.3
  Burundi 28.7 41
  Philippines 28.3 19.552
  Azerbaijan 28.2 38.131
  Spain 28.2 28.16
  North Macedonia 28.1 50.4
  Belize 27.8
  Democratic Republic of the Congo 27.4 38.64
  Equatorial Guinea 27.1 31.8
  Comoros 26.2 37.1
  Myanmar 26.2 50.4
  El Salvador 26.0 28.4
  Mozambique 25.8 36.9
  Nicaragua 25.7 18.725
  Mexico 25.6 20.3
  Sri Lanka 24.3 99.634
  Chile 23.9 36.846
  Albania 23.8 25.6
  Bosnia and Herzegovina 23.8 75.9
  Iceland 23.5 21.525
  Ecuador 23.3 17.5
  Fiji 23.2 17.5
  Mauritania 23.2 45.4
  Morocco 22.8 36.565
  New Zealand 22.2 22.441
  Belarus 22.0 39.2
  Italy 22.0 26.451
  Oman 21.6 11.3
  United Kingdom 22.5 17.659
  Egypt 20.9 41.832
  Indonesia 20.9 21.727
  Kenya 20.8 29.264
  Vanuatu 20.4 18.3
  Kuwait 20.3 8.6
  Papua New Guinea 20.1 18
  Russia 19.9 33.202
    Nepal 19.9 37.18
  Romania 18.5 32.271
  Serbia 18.4 41.138
  France 18.4 19.935
  Croatia 18.3 25.5
  Hong Kong 18.2 18.191
  Canada 18.1 20.676
  Malta 18.0 11.062
  Portugal 18.0 18.615
  Uganda 17.6 35.235
  Mali 17.5 32.7
  Estonia 17.1 34.692
  Latvia 17.1 35.49
  Slovenia 17.0 19.919
  United States 16.7 16.882
  Moldova 16.4 52.9
  Cyprus 16.3 20.6
  Slovakia 16.2 32.051
  Bulgaria 16.0 24.6
  Laos 16.0 52.16
  Australia 15.9 20.059
  Burkina Faso 15.9 26.3
  Cuba 15.8 102
  Czech Republic 15.7 22.2
  Cameroon 15.5 19
  Belgium 15.4 20.608
  Hungary 14.8 40.242
  Singapore 14.6 15.986
  Austria 14.5 17.063
  Lithuania 14.5 32.87
  Malaysia 14.5 9.075
  Guinea-Bissau 14.4 17.2
  Israel 14.4 12.384
  Luxembourg 14.3 18.316
  Bangladesh 14.0 20.107
  Poland 13.9 33.761
  Vietnam 13.4 14.839
  Bahrain 13.2 22.2
  Central African Republic 13.2 35.4
  Netherlands 13.0 14.973
  Ireland 12.9 8.602
  Finland 12.8 21.629
  Norway 12.8 13.542
  Sweden 12.7 29.198
  Thailand 12.6 10.219
  Denmark 11.8 15.785
  United Arab Emirates 11.8 13
  Tanzania 11.6 25.132
  Chad 11.6 23.34
  Tonga 11.4 88.1
  Germany 10.9 16.381
  Côte d'Ivoire 10.8 11.622
  Rwanda 10.6 69.192
  Niger 10.5 9.77
  Togo 9.5 10.95
   Switzerland 8.6 8.518
  South Korea 8.3 12.515
  China 8.3 13.1
  Japan 8.1 9.071
  Qatar 5.3 13.591
  Taiwan 3.8 9.399
  Guyana −3.3

Criticism

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A 2001 paper looking at large-scale surveys in Europe and the United States concluded that unemployment more heavily influences unhappiness than inflation. This implies that the basic misery index underweights the unhappiness attributable to the unemployment rate: "the estimates suggest that people would trade off a 1-percentage-point increase in the employment rate for a 1.7-percentage-point increase in the inflation rate."[9]

Misery and crime

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Some economists, such as Hooi Hooi Lean, posit that the components of the Misery Index drive the crime rate to a degree. Using data from 1960 to 2005, they have found that the Misery Index and the crime rate correlate strongly and that the Misery Index seems to lead the crime rate by a year or so.[10] In fact, the correlation is so strong that the two can be said to be cointegrated, and stronger than correlation with either the unemployment rate or inflation rate alone.[citation needed]

Data sources

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The data for the misery index is obtained from unemployment data published by the U.S. Department of Labor (U3) and the Inflation Rate (CPI-U) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The exact methods used for measuring unemployment and inflation have changed over time, although past data is usually normalized so that past and future metrics are comparable.

See also

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References

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  1. ^ "The US Misery Index". Inflationdata.com.
  2. ^ "US Misery Index by President".
  3. ^ Robert J. Barro (22 February 1999). "Reagan Vs. Clinton: Who's The Economic Champ?". Bloomberg. Archived from the original on October 22, 2012.
  4. ^ Steve H. Hanke (March 2011). "Misery in MENA". Cato Institute: appeared in Globe Asia.
  5. ^ Steve H. Hanke (May 2014). "Measuring Misery around the World". Cato Institute: appeared in Globe Asia.
  6. ^ Nitzan, Jonathan; Bichler, Shimshon (2009). Capital as Power: A Study of Order and Creorder. RIPE Series in Global Political Economy. Routledge. pp. 384–386.
  7. ^ Hanke, Steve H. (14 April 2021). "Hanke's 2020 Misery Index: Who's Miserable and Who's Happy?". National Review. Retrieved 23 March 2022.
  8. ^ HANKE, STEVE H. (May 18, 2023). "Hanke's 2022 Misery Index".
  9. ^ Di Tella, Rafael; MacCulloch, Robert J.; Oswald, Andrew (2001). "Preferences over Inflation and Unemployment: Evidence from Surveys of Happiness" (PDF). American Economic Review. 91 (1): 335–341, 340. doi:10.1257/aer.91.1.335. S2CID 14823969.
  10. ^ Tang, Chor Foon; Lean, Hooi Hooi (2009). "New evidence from the misery index in the crime function". Economics Letters. 102 (2): 112–115. doi:10.1016/j.econlet.2008.11.026.
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