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This is an old revision of this page, as edited by CycloneFootball71 (talk | contribs) at 04:01, 2 August 2023 (→‎Strongest storm: Reply). The present address (URL) is a permanent link to this revision, which may differ significantly from the current revision.


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Tropical Cyclones

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Project notes

I just created this wikiproject, after several months of contemplating doing so. I hope everyone working on hurricane articles will get involved. I went ahead and wrote a bunch of guidelines, basically based on current practices...naturally since this is something I just wrote it doesn't necessarily represent community consensus and needs to be discussed. That discussion should probably go here for now...although eventually we may make these pages a little more structured. For a general TODO list, see the "tasks" item on the project page. Jdorje 23:17, 5 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Reconsidering the Hurricane Severity Index

I am a member of WP:Weather, but not WP:Cyclone specifically and have some concerns about the Hurricane Severity Index (HSI) on many hurricane-related pages. I think it is more useful than the Saffir-Simpson Scale, but I think it's very out-of-date. The last storms on it hit the US 15 years ago and granted there haven't been many landfalls past that point (fortunately), but I still think there have been multiple storms that could have made the list. I have found a source that I believe says how to calculate it if we are able to do that without copyright (I'm actually not entirely sure how that works), but considering how I have found very little information on it outside of 2008 when it was proposed except for one article made after Hurricane Harvey 2017, I think we should reconsider having it on our pages, or at least rebranding/relabeling it.

https://www.stormgeo.com/assets/Uploads/HSI-Abstract-for-AMS.pdf

Jamisonsupame (talk) 14:04, 8 July 2023 (UTC)[reply]

Hi Jamisonsupame, are you referring to {{Most intense landfalling Atlantic hurricanes (HSI)}} being placed on some pages? As far as I can tell it's transcluded on Hurricane Opal, Hurricane Camille, Hurricane Betsy, Hurricane Ivan, and List of Atlantic hurricane records. I'm not surprised that there's not much information on the HSI out there as it was developed by a private company, ImpactWeather, Inc, which has since been acquired by StormGeo – publisher of the article you linked above. I guess it never really saw more widespread use owing to copyright (people would have to cite their methodology every time they used their scale, or maybe even pay royalties) and it seems likely the main motive behind StormGeo/ImpactWeather developing the scale was to sell their products (they are a business analytics firm, after all).
Anyway, we can't calculate the HSI ourselves – it'd run afoul of Wikipedia policies on original research as applying their formula goes way beyond routine calculations, especially with the 87-knot wind radii not being publicly available from the NHC, and wind radii from historical systems having to be calculated using historical storm surge data from SLOSH. (StormGeo/ImpactWeather doesn't actually outline how they do either of these things.) Their ranking table also looks somewhat cherrypicked to me, or maybe that's just because they don't have the data for some historical systems e.g. I doubt the 1935 Labor Day hurricane should be missing entirely. Given the absence of transparency behind their calculations and potential issues with comprehensiveness, I'd say that there's not much point in the table existing outside of the Hurricane Severity Index article. ~ KN2731 {talk · contribs} 10:16, 9 July 2023 (UTC)[reply]
I personally wonder about the notability of the HSI article since the scale hasn't taken off at all and is only used by StormGeo themselves. CC: @Cyclonebiskit: since he created the HSI template in the first place.Jason Rees (talk) 15:35, 9 July 2023 (UTC)[reply]

Adding the ACE in basins outside NHC's responsibility

Should the ACE section be added to the Pacific typhoon, North Indian and Southern Hemisphere season articles? Although they don't use RSMC data, they are also official and good measure of seasonal activity. IntegerSequences (talk | contribs) 08:08, 19 July 2023 (UTC)[reply]

@IntegerSequences You need to clarify what you want here, as the inclusion of ACE has been discussed multiple times over the years. Regardless lets take a couple of steps back here and consider a few things that need to be considered before ACE goes anywhere near the season articles. First of all we have to remember that there are at least two ways to calculate what the ACE of a season is, which means straight of the bat it is original research for us to calculate it ourselves. We then would do well to remember that the ACE is one of at least 4 ways to calcuate how active a season is with Velocity Flux, Power Dissipation Index and the Hurricane Destruction Potential index being other ways to calculate it. We then have to take a step back and remember that there are multiple warning centres in these basins, which prompts the question whose data do we use? It would be ideal to take the data from the RSMC/TCWC's (JMA, IMD, MFR, BMKG, BoM, PNG NWS, FMS, MSNZ), who are official, however, with the exception of the IMD they do not tend to present details on what the ACE was. We could use the data from either Ryan Maue or Phil Koltsburg/CSU, however they currently disagree with each other. I also compared the JTWC 2020 ATCR which states that the ACE for 2020 was 155.7 with both websites. CSU shows that it was 152.8 units, while I can not see an overall value for 2020 from Ryan Maue. It is also worth remembering that the season articles are long enough without a section being added that talks about various statistics. Out of curtsey I am pinging @Siroxo: to this discussion, as they commented on this proposal when it was originally placed on Talk:2023 Pacific typhoon season.Jason Rees (talk) 10:28, 19 July 2023 (UTC)[reply]

Strongest storm

2023 Atlantic hurricane season keeps getting its strongest storm changed and me, User:Hurricanehink, and User:Drdpw have expressed interest in the changing of what defines the strongest storm. It is mostly based on the premise that people don't read footnotes and comments and that in our experience, strongest storm usually correlates to wind speed. While I'm not sure about the views of other editors (or how it could be coded), I think that we should have three strongest storm categories: one for intensity, one for windspeed, and one for when there is one storm with both highest windspeed and intensity. ✶Mitch199811✶ 23:06, 29 July 2023 (UTC)[reply]

Having three different categories seems a bit excessive, and bulky. The infobox would be overcrowded for one. I'm not sure why our practice is to measure a storm's intensity by its barometric pressure rather than its wind speed (perhaps another editor can provide further insight there). I'm not really sure there's an easy solution to changing the infobox to measure by wind speed rather than pressure unless there's a consensus to do so. Gumballs678 talk 03:04, 30 July 2023 (UTC)[reply]
There needs to be a way to include both the strongest by wind speed and most intense by pressure in the season infoboxes when not the same storm, as happens in many seasons. Our practice of measuring tropical cyclone strength by pressure has generated confusion and controversy across several articles, and is out of sync with with various meteorological agencies worldwide, which determine tropical cyclone strength by wind speed. And more broadly, in media and common conversation, wind speeds equate with strength, not barometric pressure. (See also: Wikipedia talk:WikiProject Tropical cyclones/Archive 48#Two Proposals Concerning Listing Tropical Cyclone Strength) Drdpw (talk) 04:00, 30 July 2023 (UTC)[reply]
I don’t disagree. Maybe “strongest storm” can still exist, and then if a scenario such as the one in this current season arises, we can have strongest by wind and strongest by pressure, that way both areas are covered and it clears confusion. If it doesn’t occur, meaning it’s clear that the strongest storm of the season is X and not Y, then we can keep the separate designations hidden. Gumballs678 talk 12:06, 30 July 2023 (UTC)[reply]
There might be a better way to do it. But it's really just so that we can say who the most intense, windiest, and both ones. ✶Mitch199811✶ 15:19, 30 July 2023 (UTC)[reply]
In terms of measuring intensity, wind speed, and the categories associated with them, is used as it is the easiest way to convey information about a storm to the public. However, a storm's overall intensity is better represented by its pressure, which includes other things like size and structure, and determines its location and movement. I know this isn't much, but I hope it helps. ChessEric 18:14, 30 July 2023 (UTC)[reply]
@ChessEric Would it hurt to have effectively two strongest storm sections, one half for pressure and another for wind speed? ✶Mitch199811✶ 18:18, 30 July 2023 (UTC)[reply]
No. If it gets rid of the confusion, I'm all for it. ChessEric 19:59, 30 July 2023 (UTC)[reply]
It would alleviate confusion and controversy generated across several articles. Drdpw (talk) 03:45, 1 August 2023 (UTC)[reply]

Does anyone with coding skills have the ability to do a mock-up for the 2022 AHS to demonstrate this? Hurricanehink mobile (talk) 12:55, 1 August 2023 (UTC)[reply]

I might be able to via MS paint but I don't even know where templates are coded. ✶Mitch199811✶ 14:10, 1 August 2023 (UTC)[reply]
Mockup for what the Strongest section could look like.
I made a really rough sketch in MS paint of what I was thinking it could look like. The values are not right. The font will obviously be more correct with the template. Wording may also change. ✶Mitch199811✶ 15:25, 1 August 2023 (UTC)[reply]
It looks nice, but do we necessarily need to include winds for the storm with minimum pressure, or the pressure for the storm with maximum winds? I might just have the storm name and the appropriate value for each strength rating. — Iunetalk 16:30, 1 August 2023 (UTC)[reply]
  • Comment - I would like to see an example of an RSMC determining the strongest storm for a season by windspeed, before we implement this proposal as I feel it's just going to cause more agro then its worth for those editors who edit season articles outside of NHC/CPHC.Jason Rees (talk) 19:34, 1 August 2023 (UTC)[reply]
Cited examples were provided in last year's thread showing that meteorological agencies around the world use wind speed rather than central pressure. So, given today's common practice of determining tropical cyclone strength based on wind speed, who are we to to use our own standard for declaring "X Storm" as the "Strongest Storm?" Drdpw (talk) 21:43, 1 August 2023 (UTC)[reply]
@Drdpw: Those citations do not show that the RSMC's use windspeeds to determine what the strongest storm was though which is what i asked for as otherwise I believe that we would be committing original research to say that X was the strongest storm when they say Y was based on the pressure.Jason Rees (talk) 22:16, 1 August 2023 (UTC)[reply]
Well then the other basins can just use the "generic" current system while the hurricane seasons can use this new system. ✶Mitch199811✶ 22:59, 1 August 2023 (UTC)[reply]
@Mitch199811: Nice try at getting around my comments but since the NHC is an RSMC, my comments about seeing a source from the RSMC's stating that X was the strongest storm based on the winds when they say Y was based on the pressure still apply.Jason Rees (talk) 23:09, 1 August 2023 (UTC)[reply]
Our saying, for example, that Fiona was the strongest Atlantic hurricane in 2022 is original research as no reliable secondary sources make that claim. Sources do state that Ian was the strongest. Likewise, our saying that the unnamed January subtropical storm is currently the strongest Atlantic storm in 2023 is original research for the same reason. Drdpw (talk) 23:36, 1 August 2023 (UTC)[reply]
I would like to see links to these sources that state that Ian was the strongest system of last years Atlantic hurricane season, however, I am not sure how relevent these are since if NHC says that Fiona was the strongest then its the strongest not Ian which is why i asked for an example from the RSMC itself.Jason Rees (talk) 00:07, 2 August 2023 (UTC)[reply]
This states that Ian was the 5th strongest to impact the US. I'm not sure if it is based on pressure or wind speed (or if it includes the territories) but it's something. ✶Mitch199811✶ 00:19, 2 August 2023 (UTC)[reply]
Not really as it doesnt state that Ian was the strongest system of last years Atlantic hurricane season, which is what you need to prove before I agree that a change to the infobox that is going to impact at least 500 articles is needed.Jason Rees (talk) 00:24, 2 August 2023 (UTC)[reply]
It looks like the NHC doesn't use strongest storm, or at least I couldn't find it. ✶Mitch199811✶ 00:42, 2 August 2023 (UTC)[reply]
The only times I could find the NHC use it (e.g. here) is when the storm is both intense and has higher winds like with Isabel being described as the strongest since Mitch. Looking deeper into the article, it does look like they use pressure to describe strongest but in the search for definition of strongest, I also came across many articles that use wind speeds or even deaths. ✶Mitch199811✶ 00:56, 2 August 2023 (UTC)[reply]
In regards to death, is not going to be very accurate in terms of determining the strength of a storm; there have been multiple instances where a system that was "weak" (in terms of pressure or windspeed) have caused a large amount of deaths in the past. There is just no way to put an accurate measure on what a storm will do, they're highly unpredictable.
In regards to the infobox, I question if it is truly necessary for all of the articles? Considering the amount of confusion regarding what should be used, not to mention that some articles use the barometric pressure rather than windspeed. While I understand that most people equate storm strength with windspeed, the problem is that in many cases, the only way to accurately get a measure of the strength of a system is through using windspeed AND pressure together. I would definitely support an infobox if the NHC or similar reputable source says what the strongest system was, however it is borderline OR to assume the strongest system ourselves. The only issue I have with having both a category for pressure and for windspeed in the infobox, is that again it might create some confusion. We need to consider the average reader who might not know everything about tropical cyclones, windspeeds, ETC, there is a good chance that they would be confused as to why there are two different storms that are listed as the "strongest," rather than one. That won't happen every season of course, but some years, like now, where we have Don and the unnamed SS, it is not so clear cut, not to mention that some editors might not read the footnotes or comments in the article. 🌀CycloneFootball71🏈 |sandbox 04:01, 2 August 2023 (UTC)[reply]
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