The neutrality of this article is disputed. |
Donald Trump, the 45th president of the United States, who served from 2017 to 2021, announced his campaign for a nonconsecutive second presidential term in the 2024 U.S. presidential election on November 15, 2022.
Donald Trump for President 2024 | |
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Campaign | 2024 U.S. presidential election 2024 Republican primaries |
Candidate | Donald Trump 45th President of the United States (2017–2021) |
Affiliation | Republican Party |
Status | Announced: November 15, 2022 Presumptive nominee: March 6, 2024[a] |
Headquarters | Arlington, Virginia[1] |
Key people |
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Receipts | US$124,151,212.64[6] (April 30, 2024) |
Slogan | Save America Win Back The White House Make America Great Again |
Website | |
www |
Trump has campaigned on vastly expanding the authority of the executive branch over the federal government.[7] This would be accomplished through the imposition of the Jacksonian spoils system,[8][9] and directing the Department of Justice to go after domestic political enemies.[10] Other campaign issues include: implementing anti-immigrant policies and a massive deportation operation;[11] pursuing an isolationist "America First" foreign policy agenda;[12][13] repealing the Affordable Care Act;[14][15] pursuing a climate change denial and anti-clean energy platform;[16][17][18] terminating the Department of Education;[17] implementing anti-LGBT policies;[19][20][17] and pursuing what has been described as a neomercantilist trade agenda.[21][22]
Since fall of 2023, Trump has been leaning into violent and authoritarian rhetoric throughout his campaign.[23][24][25][26] Trump has increasingly used dehumanizing and violent rhetoric against his political enemies.[23][27][28] His 2024 campaign has been noted for leaning into nativist[29] and anti-LGBT rhetoric.[30] The Trump campaign has been noted for its close connections to Project 2025,[31][10][26] which has been heavily criticized and described as an attempt for Trump to become a dictator and a path leading the United States towards autocracy, with several experts in law criticizing it for violating current constitutional laws that would undermine the rule of law and the separation of powers.[32][33]
The campaign is unfolding as Trump faces the legal aftermath of four criminal indictments filed against him in 2023, as well as a civil investigation of the Trump Organization in New York. The campaign has continued to promote false claims that the former 2020 election was stolen,[34] and comes in the wake of Trump's unprecedented attempts to overturn the 2020 United States presidential election[35][36] and its culmination in the January 6 United States Capitol attack,[37][38] which has been widely described as an attempted coup d'état[39][40] or self-coup.[41][42] Trump has publicly embraced[43] the January 6 attack and has promised to pardon those charged for their involvement in the attack.[44][45][46]
On May 30, 2024, Trump was convicted of 34 felonies related to hush money paid to porn star Stormy Daniels in an attempt to influence the 2016 presidential election. He is the first former U.S. president to be convicted of a crime in American history.[47] After he won a landslide victory in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses, Trump was generally described as being the Republican Party's presumptive nominee for president,[48][49] with a process of consolidation then underway.[50] On July 13, he survived an assassination attempt at one of his rallies, which is undergoing an investigation.[51][52]
Background
Trump, the incumbent president, unsuccessfully sought election to a second term in the 2020 United States presidential election, losing to Democratic nominee Joe Biden, who obtained an electoral vote of 306 to Trump's 232. Trump also lost the popular vote by seven million votes.[53] He refused to concede the loss and claimed that the election was stolen. Trump and his allies in seven key states then allegedly devised a plot to create and submit fraudulent certificates of ascertainment that falsely asserted Trump had won the electoral college vote in those states.[54] The intent was to pass the fraudulent certificates to Mike Pence to count them rather than the authentic certificates and overturn Joe Biden's victory. Trump reportedly had been considering a 2024 presidential run immediately after his loss in the election if the plot failed to "work out."[55][56] In the week of November 9, 2020, Trump indicated to Republican Party senator Kevin Cramer: "If this doesn't work out, I'll just run again in four years."[57] Later, a group of Trump's supporters attacked the United States Capitol building to prevent the election results from being certified.[58][59]
With one week remaining in his presidency, Trump was impeached by the House of Representatives for incitement of insurrection for his actions during the January 6, 2021, Capitol Hill attack, but was acquitted in the Senate with a bipartisan 57–43 vote in favor of conviction, which fell short of the two-thirds supermajority (67 out of 100 senators) required.[60]
In December 2021, CNN reported that "Trump's wait-and-see approach to the 2024 election has frozen the next Republican presidential primary", with potential challengers keeping their heads down while awaiting Trump's official decision on the matter.[61]
In July 2022, as the public hearings of the House Select Committee on the January 6 Attack were progressing, Trump was reportedly considering making an early announcement of his 2024 candidacy.[62][63] On July 14, 2022, Intelligencer published an interview with Trump, based upon which they reported that Trump had already made up his mind, and was just deciding when to declare.[64] Following the August 2022 FBI search of Mar-a-Lago, many of Trump's allies urged that he announce his candidacy sooner, including some who had previously advised that he defer an announcement until after the mid-term elections.[65] During a rally in Iowa in the run-up to the 2022 United States midterm elections, Trump stated, "in order to make our country successful and safe and glorious, I will very, very, very probably do it again", indicating that he might announce his candidacy soon thereafter, prompting speculation that he would announce as soon as the week of November 14, 2022.[66][67]
After months of speculation, Trump announced his candidacy for president in a November 15, 2022, speech to supporters at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida.[68][69] His announcement received wide media coverage and a mixed response from both Democrats and Republicans. Some Democrats warily welcomed the campaign, viewing Trump as beatable,[70][71] while others opposed it, citing negative effects it could have on U.S. democracy.[72][73][74] Some Republicans, consisting mostly of Trump loyalists, welcomed the campaign, while others (including many Republican elected officials)[75] opposed it, viewing Trump as a weak and beatable candidate who had cost the Republicans the past several election cycles.[76][77][78]
In August 2023, Trump was indicted separately both by the federal government and the state of Georgia on numerous criminal conspiracy and fraud charges he is alleged to have committed along with co-conspirators during efforts to illegally change and overturn the results of the lost 2020 presidential election.[79] The indictments allege that Trump engaged in a criminal conspiracy to illegally alter the results of the 2020 election via fraudulent electors in the Trump fake electors plot as well as pressuring government officials to illegally change vote tallies during incidents such as the Trump–Raffensperger phone call. Prior to these indictments on charges relating to Attempts to overturn the 2020 United States presidential election, on March 30, 2023, Trump was also indicted for 34 felony counts of fraud stemming from his alleged role in falsifying business records related to hush money payments made to pornographic film actress Stormy Daniels during his 2016 U.S. presidential election campaign.[80][81] Trump called his indictment political persecution and election interference.[82] Later, on June 8, Trump was indicted by a federal grand jury for allegedly improperly retaining classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago residence and destroying evidence related to the government probe.[83] In addition to the four criminal indictments brought against Trump in Georgia, Washington, Florida, and New York, on May 9, Trump was found liable in a civil lawsuit for sexual abuse and defamation against journalist E. Jean Carroll.[84] Trump said that he will appeal the decision, describing it to be "unconstitutional silencing" and "political persecution."[85]
On May 30, 2024, Trump was convicted of 34 felonies related to hush money paid to porn star Stormy Daniels in an attempt to influence the 2016 presidential election. He is the first former U.S. president to be convicted of a crime in American history.[47]
Announcement
On November 15, 2022, Trump announced his candidacy at Mar-a-Lago in an hour-long speech.[86][87][88][89] The announcement came one week after the 2022 mid-term elections in which Trump-endorsed candidates underperformed non-Trump-endorsed candidates.[90] His announcement speech had at least "20 false and misleading claims",[88] uttering the first inaccurate claim "about two minutes in and a few minutes later, tick(ing) off at least four hyperbolic claims about his own accomplishments".[89] The New York Times Fact Check stated that "Mr. Trump repeated many familiar exaggerations about his own achievements, reiterated misleading attacks on political opponents and made dire assessments that were at odds with reality."[89]
The New York Post mocked Trump's announcement by relegating it to page 26 and noting it on the cover with a banner reading "Florida Man Makes Announcement".[91] The article referred to Mar-a-Lago as "Trump's classified-documents library" in reference to the ongoing investigation regarding Trump's alleged improper handling of classified materials which he had brought to Mar-a-Lago following his presidency for as yet unclear reasons.[91]
Attendees
The announcement was attended by comedian Alex Stein,[92] consultant Roger Stone, businessman Mike Lindell, outgoing Representative Madison Cawthorn (R-NC), former deputy director of the Office of Management and Budget Russell Vought, political advisor Jason Miller, attorney Kash Patel, political analyst Sebastian Gorka, and political aide Hogan Gidley.[93][94] The Insider noted "many members of Congress were not in attendance", including Matt Gaetz.[93] Family members who attended included Trump's wife and former first lady Melania, Trump's sons Barron and Eric, Eric's wife Lara, and Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner. His daughters Ivanka and Tiffany did not attend the announcement party; Ivanka said she would not be engaging in politics going forward and would not be a part of her father's presidential bid.[95] Trump's son Donald Trump Jr. also did not attend.[93] Stan Fitzgerald, president of Veterans for America First, attended.[96]
Platform
A central campaign theme for Trump's second presidential bid is "retribution".[97][98] Trump announced the theme during his March 2023 speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), stating "In 2016, I declared, 'I am your voice.' Today, I add: I am your warrior. I am your justice. And for those who have been wronged and betrayed, I am your retribution. I am your retribution." Trump framed the 2024 election as "the final battle," and openly promised to leverage the power of the presidency for political reprisals.[99]
The Trump campaign has been noted for its close connections to The Heritage Foundation's Project 2025, a right-wing presidential transition plan and policy proposal for the Trump campaign.[31][10][26] Other think-tanks and policy groups aligned with Trump include the Center for Renewing America, the America First Policy Institute, and America First Legal. Trump's campaign has stated Trump will have the final say on which policies are implemented.[100]
Expansion of executive and presidential power
Trump's platform calls for the vast expansion of presidential powers and the executive branch over every part of the federal government.[7] In campaign speeches, Trump stated that he would centralize government power under his authority, replace career federal civil service employees with political loyalists, and use the military for domestic law enforcement and the deportation of immigrants.[101] In Trump v. United States, Trump has argued that the Constitution allows for absolute immunity for all presidential actions taken—even if criminal—unless the Senate successfully votes to impeach.[7]
Trump has called to bring independent agencies such as the Federal Communications Commission and Federal Trade Commission under direct presidential control. Trump's allies have drafted an executive order requiring all independent agencies to submit actions to the White House for review. Trump has called for presidential authority to 'impound' funds for Congressionally appropriated programs, a practice which was outlawed under President Richard Nixon. Trump promised to order the Justice Department to investigate political rivals and Joe Biden, and fire Attorneys General who disobeyed him.[100] Trump has called for stripping employment protections for thousands of career civil service employees and replacing them with political loyalists if deemed an 'obstacle to his agenda' within federal agencies, the United States Intelligence Community, State Department, and Department of Defense.[31] Trump has proposed instituting a new civil service test of his own creation to test the loyalty of federal workers. Trump has promised to crack down on whistleblowers who are shielded by law and create an independent body to "monitor" intelligence agencies.[102]
Trump's proposals are based on a maximalist interpretation of the unitary executive theory. The theory rejects the notion of the separation of powers and that the government is composed of three separate branches but that Article Two of the United States Constitution gives the President absolute authority. The theory is noted to be in line with Trump's thinking owing to comments made in 2019, where he stated "I have an Article 2, where I have the right to do whatever I want as president."[31] Such proposals would be carried out via the reintroduction of Schedule F that was originally introduced at the end of Trump's former presidency, which would strip civil service protections of tens of thousands of civil servants to be at-will appointments filled with Trump loyalists identified by Project 2025 of The Heritage Foundation.[103] The reforms have been described as a reimposition of the Jacksonian spoils system.[8][9] Trump has stated his intention to see these reforms completed in order to root out the "deep state", stating: "We will expel the warmongers from our government. We will drive out the globalists. We will cast out the communists, Marxists and fascists. And we will throw off the sick political class that hates our country."[31]
Use of the Insurrection Act
Trump and his allies have reportedly drafted executive orders to invoke the Insurrection Act on the first day of his presidency to allow the military to shut down civil demonstrations against him.[10] Campaigning in Iowa, Trump stated he would deploy the military in Democratic cities and states.[104] The Insurrection Act would be used to allow the military to detain migrants at the southern border.[11] Trump has suggested overriding the Posse Comitatus Act.[100]
Law enforcement
Trump has made conflicting statements regarding his support for law enforcement during his 2024 campaign, notably running on a pro-police 'law and order' platform while also attacking state and federal law enforcement that is viewed as unfriendly to himself or in relation to his multiple criminal incitements.[105] Trump has painted America as violent and crime-ridden on the campaign trail. Trump has stated that FBI statistics showing that homicides have dropped by 6% in 2022 and 13% in 2023 are "a lie."[100] Trump has made false claims of a "migrant crime wave" that are not supported by national data.[106]
Trump has previously called for defunding the FBI and Justice Department in response to their investigations into his attempts to overturn the 2020 election and his handling of classified documents.[107] Trump-aligned Project 2025 has called for terminating the FBI and slashing funding for the DOJ.[26] Trump has repeatedly stated his intention to have the Department of Justice investigate his domestic political rivals, judges, prosecutors, and witnesses involved in his criminal trials.[108][109] The Washington Post previously reported Trump's plans to use the Justice Department to prosecute critics of the former president including former attorney general Bill Barr and former chief of staff John F. Kelly.[10]
Trump has frequently criticized of what he sees as perceived restrictions on police use of force, advocating for a tougher stance on local governments that receive federal grants by pushing for the reinstatement of stop-and-frisk policies. He has also voiced support for shooting suspected shoplifters and the extrajudicial killing of minor offenders, as well as the implementation of death penalty for smugglers.[105][17] Trump has also advocated for the implementation of qualified immunity and full indemnification for law enforcement officers, a move that experts believe is largely superfluous and would simply serve to strengthen current police protocols.[105]
Immigration
The New York Times reported that Trump planned "an extreme expansion of his first-term crackdown on immigration," including "preparing to round up undocumented people already in the United States on a vast scale and detain them in sprawling camps while they wait to be expelled," and that it "amounts to an assault on immigration on a scale unseen in modern American history." The New York Times also reported that Trump's advisors are preparing a 'blitz' strategy designed to overwhelm immigrant-rights lawyers, and that his plans would rely on existing statutes without the need for new legislation, although such legislation would also likely be attempted. Trump's plans are expected to encounter significant Supreme Court challenges, and engender social and economic toil, especially within the housing, agriculture, and service sectors.[11]
Trump has stated that his plan would follow the 'Eisenhower model,' a reference to the 1954 campaign Operation Wetback, stating to a crowd in Iowa: "Following the Eisenhower model, we will carry out the largest domestic deportation operation in American history." To achieve the goal of deporting millions per year, Trump has stated his intent to expand a form of deportation that does not require due process hearings which would be accomplished by the expedited removal authorities of 8 U.S. Code § 1225; invoking the Alien Enemies Act within the Alien and Sedition Acts of 1798; and invoking the Insurrection Act of 1807 to allow the military to apprehend migrants and thus bypass the Posse Comitatus Act.[11] Trump would reassign federal agents to Immigrations and Customs Enforcement and deputize local police officers and sheriffs, agents of the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, the Drug Enforcement Administration, and National Guard soldiers volunteered by Republican states which would be sent to blue states.[110][11] Individuals would be placed in massive camps constructed with funds redirected from the military budget in case of any refusal by Congress to appropriate funding. ICE raids would be expanded to include workplace raids and sweeps in public places. Following arrest, Stephen Miller has stated that immigrants would be taken to "large-scale staging grounds near the border, most likely in Texas" to be held in internment camps prior to deportation. Trump has also spoken of rounding up homeless people in blue cities and detaining them in camps.[110] The Trump team will also attempt to overturn the Flores settlement that prevents the indefinite holding of children.[11]
Trump has promised to reinstate his ban on entry to individuals from certain Muslim-majority nations, and having the Centers for Disease Control reimpose COVID-era restrictions on asylum claims by asserting migrants carry infectious diseases such as the flu, tuberculosis, and scabies.[11] Trump has said he would build more of the border wall, and move thousands of troops currently stationed overseas to the southern border.[17]
Other proposals include: banning visas of foreign students who participated in anti-Israel or pro-Palestinian protests; suspending the U.S. refugee program; directing U.S. consular officials to expand ideological screening of applicants deemed to have undesirable attitudes; revoking temporary protected status to individuals living in the United States, including Afghans who moved to America following the 2021 Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, while those who helped U.S. forces would be 're-vetted' to see if they really did; ending birthright citizenship for babies born in the United States to undocumented parents; using coercive diplomacy by making immigration cooperation a condition for any bilateral engagement; reinstating 'Remain in Mexico'; and reviving 'safe third country' status with several nations in Central America, and expanding them to Africa, Asia, and South America.[11][102]
Trump's campaign has stated his intention to expel DACA recipients after his previous attempt failed in 2020 by a 5–4 vote in the Supreme Court in Department of Homeland Security v. Regents of the University of California. Trump's campaign has not stated whether they will reinstate Trump's former child separation policies.[11]
Throughout January and early February 2024, Trump successfully called on House and Senate Republicans to kill a bipartisan immigration deal to address the Mexico–United States border crisis that included several sought-after conservative proposals. Trump claimed that it would hurt his and Republican's reelection chances and ability to run off immigration as a campaign issue.[111][112][113][114][115][116]
Economy and trade
Trump's stated trade policy involves the United States decoupling from the global economy and having the country become more self-contained and exerting its power through individual trade dealings. The New York Times has stated if enacted, Trump's proposed changes would have large impacts on jobs, prices, global alliances, and risk igniting a global trade war.[21] This would be accomplished through a universal baseline tariff[21] of 10% on all imports,[117] with increased penalties if trade partners manipulate their currency or engage in unfair trade practices.[17] Trump has also called for 100% tariffs on cars made outside the U.S. and a minimum 60% tariff on Chinese goods.[117] Trump stated his plans to urge Congress to pass a "Trump Reciprocal Trade Act" to bestow presidential authority to impose a reciprocal tariff on any country that imposed one on the United States.[17] Trump's policies have been described as protectionist,[118] neomercantilist or autarkist.[22][21]
Trump's trade policies are noted to be aimed against China. The Washington Post reported in January 2024 that Trump was preparing for a "massive trade war" with China.[119] Trump has proposed a four-year plan to phase out Chinese imports of essential goods such as electronics, steel, and pharmaceuticals. Trump proposes forcing Chinese owners to sell any holdings "that jeopardize America's national security," and ban Chinese holding of vital infrastructure in the energy, technology, and agricultural sectors, among others.[17] Trump-aligned Project 2025 also plans for dismantling the Department of Commerce.[26]
Trump has stated his intention to institute anti-regulatory policies and cut back on regulations he believes stifle job creation. Trump has stated he intends to institute further individual tax cuts and corporate tax cuts beyond his prior 2017 tax cuts.[102] Trump has argued that keeping taxes low for the wealthy increases job creation.[120] Trump has suggested eliminating the income tax and replacing it with an "all-tariff policy." Analysis of the plan indicated it would create a regressive tax system that would disproportionately increase prices for lower and middle class households and benefit the wealthy.[121] Trump has suggested eliminating federal taxes on tips in an attempt to appeal to working class voters. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated the plan would lead to a $150 to $250 billion loss in federal revenue over the next ten years, and some critics on the left and right claimed it would offer little relief to workers and potentially lead to increased taxes on "everyone else."[122]
On April 15, 2024, Politico reported that economic advisors close to Trump have drafted plans to devalue the US dollar if elected to a second term. The plan would aim to reduce the trade deficit and make US exports cheaper, but would also increase inflation, invite retaliation from other countries and threaten the dollar's role as the world's dominant reserve currency.[123]
On April 26, 2024, The Wall Street Journal reported Trump allies plan on greatly limiting the independence of the Federal Reserve should Trump win the election. Of particular note were plans to allow the president to directly set interest rates, remove Chair Jerome Powell before his term expires in 2026, and subject the Fed to oversight from the OMB.[124][125] In June 2024, 16 Nobel Prize in Economics laureates signed an open letter arguing that Trump's fiscal and trade policies coupled with efforts to limit the Federal Reserve's independence would reignite an inflation surge in the United States.[126][127]
Foreign policy
Trump's 2024 campaign has reiterated its isolationist "America First" foreign policy agenda.[12] Trump has stated that even before he is inaugurated,[17] he will have ended the Russo-Ukrainian War in 24 hours,[12] stop the "endless flow of American treasure to Ukraine," and ask Europeans to reimburse the U.S. the cost of rebuilding its stockpiles.[17] Trump previously stated he would potentially recognize Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea,[128] and made suggestions that he could have prevented the war by ceding parts of eastern Ukraine to Russia.[12] In June 2024, Trump described Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as "maybe the greatest salesman of any politician that’s ever lived … Every time he comes to our country, he walks away with $60 billion … It never ends … I will have that settled prior to taking the White House as president-elect".[129][130]
Trump has promised to "fundamentally reevaluate" NATO's purpose and mission.[17] During his previous time as president, Trump repeatedly denigrated the NATO alliance, and suggested several times of withdrawing the United States from the alliance.[128] Trump has previously made comments questioning whether or not to come to the defense of a NATO ally depending on whether they "fulfilled their obligations to us," called the European Union a "foe" based on "what they do to us in trade," and has provided recent statements questioning the value of alliances.[12] On January 9, 2024, Thierry Breton claimed that in January 2020 during the World Economic Forum in Davos, Trump told Ursula von der Leyen that "if Europe is under attack, we will never come to help you and to support you," and that "NATO is dead, and we will leave, we will quit NATO," along with claims that Germany owed America $400 billion for defense.[131] On January 10, 2024, responding to question about his commitment to NATO during a Fox News town hall, Trump stated that "NATO has taken advantage of our country" and conditioned NATO commitment based on "if they treat us properly."[132] Trump previously attempted to withdraw troops from Germany during the end of his presidency due to anger with then-Chancellor Angela Merkel, but the order was rescinded by President Biden.[13] Trump has suggested withdrawing troops from South Korea if it does not pay more to support U.S. troops there.[100]
During a February 2024 rally in South Carolina, Trump discussed a past conversation he had when president, recounting a foreign leader from NATO asking what Trump would do if "we don't pay and we're attacked by Russia", to which Trump responded that he would not defend the "delinquent" NATO country, instead he would "encourage" Russia to "do whatever the hell they want."[13][133][134] Trump reiterated his stance on NATO members a few days later, stating that "if they're not going to pay, we're not going to protect".[135]
Trump has voiced support for Israel in the Israel–Hamas war, and has stated that they must "finish the problem".[136] Trump has previously promised he would bar Gaza residents from entering the United States through an extended travel ban.[137] Trump has stated he would shut down Palestinian protests, deport demonstrators, and "set the movement back 25 or 30 years."[138]
Trump has suggested sending armed forces into Mexico to battle drug cartels.[102]
Abortion and contraception
Trump has been noted by analysts' for attempting to strike a middle ground on abortion despite previously calling himself "the most pro-life president ever,"[139] and taking credit for having appointed the Supreme Court justices responsible for the overturning of Roe v. Wade.[140] On April 8, 2024, Trump reiterated that he was "proudly responsible" for overturning Roe v. Wade, but supported leaving the issue of abortion for the states to decide.[141] Trump has stated he would allow red states to monitor women's pregnancies and prosecute those who violate abortion bans.[100]
In September 2023, Trump did not state whether or not he supported a 15-week abortion ban, stating "I'm not going to say I would or I wouldn't,"[142] but stated that Ron DeSantis' six-week abortion ban was "terrible"[139] and later criticized Arizona's near total ban on abortion.[143] In March 2024, Trump stated he was leaning towards a 15-week national abortion ban with exceptions, acknowledging that "you have to win elections."[144]
Trump has previously made conflicting statements about his stance on abortion. In 1999 as part of the Reform Party, Trump stated that he was "very pro-choice." During his 2016 campaign, Trump stated that women should be punished for having an abortion,[142] and claimed he would appoint pro-life justices to the Supreme Court.[145] On June 24, 2022, Trump claimed credit for appointing the justices responsible for the Dobbs decision.[146] On May 17, 2023, Trump took credit for ending Roe, stating on Truth Social, "After 50 years of failure, with nobody coming even close, I was able to kill Roe v. Wade, much to the "shock" of everyone, and for the first time put the Pro Life movement in a strong negotiating position over the Radicals that are willing to kill babies even into their 9th month, and beyond. Without me there would be no 6 weeks, 10 weeks, 15 weeks, or whatever is finally agreed to. Without me the pro Life movement would have just kept losing. Thank you President TRUMP!!!"[142][147][148] On January 10, 2024, during a Fox News town hall, Trump stated that "for 54 years, they were trying to get Roe v. Wade terminated, and I did it. And I'm proud to have done it." He also reiterated his opposition to Ron DeSantis and Florida's six-week abortion ban.[149]
Asked twice during a television interview about whether he supported restrictions on contraception, Trump stated he was "looking at that" and would release a policy on contraception "very shortly", and further commented: "Things really do have a lot to do with the states and some states are going to have different policies than others". Following criticism, Trump backtracked and stated he would "never advocate" to restrict birth control but did not recant his suggestion of possibly allowing states to restrict them.[150][151] Trump has previously stated he felt "very strongly" about the 19th-century Comstock Act that prohibits the mailing of mifepristone, birth control and other abortion medications and that he would make a statement on the issue.[152]
Social services and healthcare
Trump has promised to replace the Affordable Care Act if elected as president.[14] Some Republican senators have signaled openness to unwind and replace the ACA. No specifics on a replacement plan have yet been revealed. Trump previously attempted to repeal the ACA in 2017.[15][153][154]
During a March 11, 2024 interview, Trump suggested he was open to cutting entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare, which the Trump campaign later claimed was merely referring to "cutting waste" and that he would protect the programs. Trump previously suggested while president in 2020 that he would "at some point" look into cutting entitlement programs, and Trump's previous budget proposals have suggested some cuts to the programs. During the Republican primary, Trump attacked his opponents by suggesting they would cut entitlement benefits.[155][156]
Trump has stated his intention to force homeless to seek accept drug treatment or face arrest. Trump has stated he intends to move the homeless out of cities to "open large parcels of inexpensive land" to seek treatment.[102]
LGBT rights and civil rights
Trump's campaign has stated its intention to reinterpret existing Civil Rights-era protections for minorities to counter "anti-white racism." According to Axios, Trump's Justice Department would "push to eliminate or upend programs in government and corporate America that are designed to counter racism that has favored whites."[157] Trump has stated that there is a "definite anti-white feeling in the country." Trump's advisors have stated Trump will rescind Biden's Executive Orders designed to boost diversity and racial equity.[100]
Trump has promised a rollback on trans rights.[20] Trump stated he will rescind Biden's Title IX protections "on day one" for transgender students using bathrooms, locker rooms, and pronouns that align with their gender identities.[158] Trump has stated that he will ask Congress to pass a bill stating that the United States will only recognize two genders as determined at birth, and has promised to crackdown on gender-affirming care. Trump has stated that hospitals and health care providers that provide transitional hormones or surgery will no longer qualify for federal funding, including Medicare and Medicaid funding. Trump has stated he will push to prohibit hormonal and surgical intervention for minors in all 50 states.[17]
Trump has promised "severe consequences" for teachers that "suggest to a child that they could be trapped in the wrong body." Trump previously removed Title IX protections to ensure transgender youth had access to bathrooms of their choice and took steps to roll back transgender protections in the Affordable Care Act.[20]
Education
Trump has pledged to terminate the Department of Education,[17] claiming it has been infiltrated by "radical zealots and Marxists,"[159] but also pledged to exert influence over local school districts and universities by giving funding preference to schools that abolish teacher tenure, adopt merit pay, and allow the direct election of school principals by parents. Trump has said that he would refuse to fund any school with a mask or vaccine mandate. Trump has stated his support for teachers to carry concealed weapons, and to provide funding to allow schools to hire armed guards.[17][160] Trump has said he will require universities to "defend American tradition and Western civilization" and purge diversity programs.[102]
Trump has stated his intention to promote prayer in public schools, and stated he will fight for "patriotic education" that will "teach students to love their country, not to hate their country like they're taught right now" and will promote "the nuclear family" including "the roles of mothers and fathers" and the "things that make men and women different and unique."[17] Trump has stated he will cut federal funding for programs that include "critical race theory, gender ideology, or other inappropriate racial, sexual, or political content onto our children."[159] Trump has stated he will allow public funds to be used for private religious instruction."[102]
Trump has also proposed an "American Academy," a free online university open to all Americans to be funded by taxes on endowments of universities that have large endowments.[161][162]
Energy, environment, and climate change
Trump is running on a climate change denial platform.[16][163] Trump has repeatedly referred to his energy policy under the mantra "drill, baby, drill,"[164] or "drill, drill, drill,"[165][166] and has promised to increase oil drilling on public lands and offer tax breaks to oil, gas, and coal producers. Trump has stated his goal for the U.S. to have the lowest cost of electricity and energy of any country in the world.[17]
Trump has promised to rollback electric vehicle initiatives and rescind proposed EPA tailpipe emission limits that would require 54% of new vehicles to be electric by 2030. Trump has proposed leaving the Paris Climate Accords, ending wind subsidies, and eliminating regulations targeting incandescent lightbulbs, gas stoves, dishwashers and shower heads.[17] Trump has draft executive orders to pull the United States out of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.[167] Trump previously rescinded over 125 environmental rules and policies designed to reduce planet-warming emissions during his previous presidency. Plans drafted by the Heritage Foundation as part of Project 2025 promise the "rescinding of all funds not already spent" by the Inflation Reduction Act, slashing funding for the Environmental Protection Agency, and closing the Energy Department's renewable energy offices.[18] Trump has said he will end all federal policies that support electric vehicles and add a 100% tariff on electric vehicles imported from Mexico,[163] and will halt all offshore wind energy projects "on day one" of his presidency.[168] Trump campaign spokespersons have stated that Trump would repeal a climate disclosure rule approved by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in March 2024 requiring disclosure of climate risks, climate risk management policies, and carbon footprint accounting by public companies,[169] and also reinstate a rule promulgated during his administration requiring fiduciaries in proxy voting under the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 to consider pecuniary interests only and not environmental, social, and corporate governance factors in investments for 401(k)s that was rescinded by the Employee Benefits Security Administration during the Biden administration under Executive Order 13990.[170][171]
Trump has made varied statements over the years about his belief in climate change. Between 2011 and 2015, Trump made a total of 115 tweets expressing climate change denial. During his initial 2016 campaign, Trump stated that climate change was a hoax, that China was using the myth of climate change to gain an advantage over the United States, and that environmentalists were using the phrase climate change because global warming did not stick.[172] In an October, 2018 interview with 60 Minutes, Trump stated that he did not deny climate change and that something was changing, but doubted it was being caused by mankind and speculated it was part of a natural cycle and could "go back," and that scientists have a political agenda.[173] In January, 2019, Trump mocked a Defense Department report outlining climate change's effects by pointing to a major winter storm at the time.[174] In September 2020, Trump stated that he believed humans played a small role in causing climate change.[175] However, in an interview with Fox in March 2022, Trump stated again that climate change was a hoax, and that the climate naturally fluctuated and mentioned concerns of global cooling in the 1920s.[176] In November, 2022, Trump repeated claims on the campaign trail ridiculing efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the Green New Deal, and incorrectly stated that the effects of climate change would not happen for another 200 to 300 years.[177] During his 2024 presidential run, Trump has repeated that human-caused climate change is fake, and has made false claims that whale deaths are caused by wind turbines.[16] Trump has not officially stated how he will deal with climate change if reelected to the White House.[178]
Rhetoric
Trump has been noted for employing more harsher rhetoric compared to that used during his previous presidential campaign in 2020. Trump's markedly harsher and increasingly violent rhetoric against his political enemies has been described by historians and scholars as populist, authoritarian, fascistic,[b] and unlike anything a political candidate has ever said in American history.[179][11] Following the Republican primaries, Trump has been noted to "double down" on incendiary rhetoric rather than moderating it to appeal to swing voters.[187]
Authoritarian and antidemocratic statements
Trump's 2024 campaign has been criticized by the media for making increasingly violent and authoritarian statements,[189][190][191][32][187] with some commentators and historians even calling Trump's rhetoric fascist,[c] and that it represents a hardening of language previously used in his 2020 campaign.[192]
Despite Trump's former attempts to overturn the 2020 United States presidential election[35][36] and its culmination in the January 6 United States Capitol attack,[37][38] widely described as an attempted coup d'état[193][39][40] or self-coup;[41][42] Trump has claimed that Joe Biden is the "destroyer"[34] and real threat to democracy,[194] and has repeated false claims that the 2020 election was rigged and stolen from him, of which there has been no evidence.[34] Trump has previously stated he has the power to "terminate" the Constitution to reverse his election loss.[195][196] Trump allies have reportedly drafted plans to use the Insurrection Act of 1807 to deploy the military to shut down civil demonstrations against him on his first day in office.[10] During his 2024 campaign, Trump suggested seeking a third term in office which would echo comments he previously made during his 2020 campaign[197][198] and previous time in office.[199][200] During an April interview with Time magazine, Trump stated he would not be in favor of challenging the 22nd Amendment which prohibits a third term in office. He later suggested he could be a three term president.[197]
Trump has repeatedly claimed that he won the 2020 election as part of the election denial movement conspiracy theory.[201] In a May interview with the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Trump suggested he would not accept the 2024 election results in Wisconsin, and repeated false claims that he won the state in 2020.[202] In the lead up to the 2024 election, the Republican Party has made false claims of massive "noncitizen voting" by immigrants in an attempt to delegitimize the election if Trump loses.[203][204][205] Trump and several Republicans have stated they will not accept the results of the 2024 election if they believe they are "unfair."[206]
During a rally in December 2023, Trump quoted Vladimir Putin condemning American democracy, stating that the criminal charges against him "shows the rottenness of the American political system, which cannot pretend to teach others about democracy," and praised Viktor Orbán and Kim Jong Un.[207][208] Trump has been noted to praise despots in public and in private during his 2024 campaign.[209][210]
The Trump campaign has been noted for its close connections to Project 2025,[31][10][26] which has been heavily criticized and described as an attempt for Trump to become a dictator and a path leading the United States towards autocracy, with several experts in law criticizing it for violating current constitutional laws that would undermine the rule of law and the separation of powers.[32][33]
Investigation and arrest of political rivals
Individual | Type of retribution |
---|---|
Joe Biden | Special prosecutor,[102] felony charges,[211] imprisonment.[212] |
Kamala Harris | Imprisonment.[212] |
Mitch McConnel | Imprisonment.[212] |
Chuck Schumer | Imprisonment.[212] |
Mike Pence | Imprisonment.[212] |
Liz Cheney | Indictment,[213] military tribunal, treason, imprisonment.[212] |
Nancy Pelosi | Imprisonment.[212] |
Adam Kinzinger | Imprisonment.[212] |
Adam Schiff | Indictment,[213] imprisonment.[212] |
Jamie Raskin | Indictment,[213] imprisonment.[212] |
Pete Aguilar | Indictment,[213] imprisonment.[212] |
Zoe Lofgren | Indictment,[213] imprisonment.[212] |
Bennie Thompson | Indictment,[213] imprisonment.[212] |
Hillary Clinton | Imprisonment.[214] |
Mark Milley | Execution for treason.[215] |
Stephanie Murphy | Indictment.[213] |
Elaine Luria | Indictment.[213] |
William Barr | Prosecution.[10] |
John F. Kelly | Prosecution.[10] |
Mark Zuckerberg | Imprisonment.[216] |
Trump has repeatedly stated his intention to have the Justice Department investigate and arrest his domestic political rivals, judges, prosecutors, and witnesses involved in his criminal trials.[214][109][179] Trump has promised to fire U.S. Attorneys that disobey his orders to prosecute someone, which has drawn comparisons to Nixon's Saturday Night Massacre.[100] Trump has suggested investigating MSNBC and NBC's parent corporation Comcast if he returns to office, calling their news coverage of him "treason."[108] Trump has promised to appoint a special prosecutor to investigate Joe Biden. Trump has promised to direct the Justice Department to investigate district attorneys on novel civil rights grounds by arguing some are engaging in selective enforcement.[102] Trump has called for the indictment of members of the January 6 Committee.[213] Trump has called for "televised military tribunals" against current and former Democratic and Republican officials for treason.[212]
Trump has stated multiple times that if reelected to the presidency, he will order the Justice Department to investigate and arrest political rivals for the sole purpose of preventing them from winning an election. During an October, 2023 campaign rally in Derry, NH, Trump stated that "If I win - which I hope we do, because we're not going to have a country - but if I win, I could then say, I don't know: 'This guy, this Democrat's doing great. I don't like the poll numbers. Attorney General, come down, arrest that guy, will you, please? Give him a subpoena! Indict him! That's the end of him.'"[179] Trump stated during a November 2023 interview with Univision, "if I happen to be president and I see somebody who's doing well and beating me very badly, I say go down and indict them, mostly they would be out of business. They'd be out. They'd be out of the election."[109]
Trump's dictator comment
On December 5, 2023, in a recorded television interview with Sean Hannity, Trump said he would only be a dictator on "day one" of his presidency and not after,[d] and did not answer Hannity's question if he would not "abuse power, to break the law, to use the government to go after people."[222] Trump campaign aides later stated that Trump was merely attempting to "trigger the left" and media with his dictator comment.[190] Peter Baker from The New York Times reported that after the statement, "talk about the possible authoritarian quality of a new Trump presidency has suffused the political conversation in the nation's capital," and stated that the Trump campaign was not doing enough to ease worries and seemed to be 'leaning in' to the media's autocratic predictions.[223]
On December 9, 2023, Trump responded to Baker's article about his dictator remarks at the New York Young Republican Club's 111th Annual Gala Keynote by saying "Baker today in the New York Times said that I want to be a dictator. I didn't say that. I said I want to be a dictator for one day. You know why I wanted to be a dictator? Because I want a wall, and I want to drill, drill, drill." Trump then claimed talk that he was a threat to democracy was Democrats 'newest hoax.'[166]
The comment sparked discussion about its meaning and possible consequences among the ones who found it unimportant,[224][225] and the ones who found it concerning.[226][227][228][229][230][231]
Trump v. United States
In Trump v. United States, Trump has argued that the Constitution allows for absolute immunity for all presidential actions taken—even if criminal—unless the Senate successfully votes to impeach.[7] During oral arguments on April 25, 2024, Trump attorney D. John Sauer notably argued that if structured as an official act, the president could not be charged for selling nuclear secrets to a foreign adversary, accepting a bribe, ordering the military to stage a coup to retain power, or ordering a political assassination. Sauer argued that owing to absolute immunity, the president must be successfully impeached and removed from Congress first.[232]
Trump's claims for "absolute immunity" have been rejected by most political commentators and two lower courts. In a unanimous ruling by the three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia, the court stated that if Trump's theory of constitutional authority were accepted, it would "collapse our system of separated powers" and put a president above the law.[233]
Charlie Savage of The New York Times wrote that Trump's immunity claim challenged "a hallmark of American-style democracy: its suspicion of concentrated power." Further stating that "rather than a presidency at least theoretically checked by law, the country would be ruled by presidents who could openly commit official crimes with impunity, so long as enough allied lawmakers remained sufficiently loyal to block any impeachment."[7]
Writing for Politico, former federal prosecutor Ankush Khardori wrote that Trump's claims were "ridiculous," criticized the Supreme Court for not dismissing them immediately and thus potentially delaying Trump's criminal trials until after the 2024 United States presidential election, and criticized the court for "issuing transparently political rulings that are clearly aligned with the political priorities of the Republican Party."[234]
On July 1, 2024, in a 6-3 decision along ideological lines, the Supreme Court gave Trump absolute immunity for acts he committed as President within his constitutional purview, presumptive immunity for official acts, and no immunity for unofficial acts.[235] The decision was widely criticized by legal experts and historians.[236]
Violent and dehumanizing statements
Trump's campaign has been noted for using increasingly dehumanizing and violent rhetoric against his political enemies.[237][215][238][239][27]
Violent statements against political opponents and elected officials
In public remarks in September 2023, Trump used violent rhetoric, calling for shoplifters to be shot and Mark Milley, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff appointed by him, to be executed for treason; he also made fun of the hammer attack that critically injured Paul Pelosi, the husband of the then House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.[215] Trump has said his political opponents are a greater threat to the United States than countries such as Russia, China, and North Korea.[239][240]
In advance of the 2024 election, Trump has reposted QAnon content on his social media, has encouraged QAnon chants, and plays a song associated with QAnon to close out his rallies. The posts have been regarded by experts as a "tacit endorsement of a dangerous movement that has been linked to criminal acts ranging from the Jan. 6 Capitol riot to isolated cases of violence and even murder."[241]
While discussing the U.S. economy and its auto industry in a rally on March 16, 2024, Trump promised to place tariffs on cars manufactured abroad if he won the election, adding "Now, if I don't get elected, it's going to be a ... blood bath for the country."[242][243] On March 30, 2024, Trump was criticized for posting a video on his social media showing a hog-tied Joe Biden.[244][245][246] Trump has played down but not ruled out violence after the 2024 election if he does not win, stating, "it depends."[247]
Trump has been noted to send out false, inflammatory fundraising emails in an attempt to generate attention and cash which have been noted to be aggressive even by standards of "Trump's frequently hyperbolic and inflammatory language." Trump has suggested his opponents seek to give him the death sentence via guillotine, and has suggested that his political opponents are really coming after his supporters. Trump's comment stating, "1 MONTH UNTIL ALL HELL BREAKS LOOSE! THEY WANT TO SENTENCE ME TO DEATH" was especially criticized for resembling a tweet he gave out before the events of the January 6 attack stating "Be there, will be wild!" and Steve Bannon's tweet that "all hell is going to break loose tomorrow" before violent extremist groups assaulted the US Capitol.[248][249]
Violent statements against individuals within the legal system
Trump has attacked the witnessness, judges, juries, and families of individuals involved in his criminal trials.[250][251][252] Trump has repeatedly attacked law enforcement in relation to their criminal investigations into his attempts to overturn the 2020 election and his handling of classified documents,[105] calling them "political monsters," telling people to "go after" New York attorney general Letitia James, and warning that an indictment against him by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin L. Bragg would bring "potential death and destruction," among other comments,[108] which have all raised concerns over officers' physical safety.[253]
During and after his criminal conviction of 34 felonies in The People of the State of New York v. Donald J. Trump, Trump and his Republican allies made numerous false and misleading statements and attacked the judge and jury involved in the trial. Trump called Judge Juan Merchan "a devil," claimed the trial was "rigged" and falsely accused Joe Biden and the Democratic Party of orchestrating his criminal trials to prevent him from returning to the White House, of which there is no evidence.[254][255] The false statements were met with calls for violent retribution, execution of the judge, civil war, armed insurrection and rioting by pro-Trump supporters online.[256]
During his 2024 campaign, Trump has continued portraying himself as a victim of a "Deep State" of elites who are attempting to undermine him and America.[257] Trump has said his criminal trials make him a "political prisoner" and has compared himself to Russian dissident Alexei Navalny.[258][259] On May 21, 2024, Trump falsely claimed Joe Biden was ready to kill him during the August 8, 2022 FBI search of Mar-a-Lago by misrepresenting standard Justice Department policy on use of force.[260] The accusation was noted to be without precedent in modern U.S. history.[261] The New York Times reported the accusation was an escalation in rhetoric and portrayed himself as a "political martyr whose very life could be in danger."[257]
Violent and dehumanizing statements against undocumented immigrants
Since fall 2023,[28] Trump has repeatedly used racial hygiene rhetoric by stating that undocumented immigrants are "poisoning the blood of our country," which has been compared to language echoing that of white supremacists and Adolf Hitler.[238][262][263][264] Trump's anti-immigration tone is noted to have grown harsher from his previous time as president, where, as reported in The New York Times, he "privately mused about developing a militarized border like Israel's, asked whether migrants crossing the border could be shot in the legs and wanted a proposed border wall topped with flesh-piercing spikes and painted black to burn migrants' skin."[11] Recent rhetoric includes statements that foreign leaders are deliberately emptying insane asylums to send "prisoners, murderers, drug dealers, mental patients, terrorists"[265] across America's southern border as migrants, and comparing migrants to the fictional serial killer Hannibal Lecter.[11]
Trump has repeatedly claimed that undocumented immigrants are subhuman,[266] stating they are "not people,"[267] "not humans,"[266] and "animals."[243] Trump has described immigrants as deadly snakes during his rallies, repurposing lyrics from the 1968 song "The Snake."[264] Trump has claimed without evidence that undocumented immigrants from Africa, the Middle East and elsewhere are "building an army" of "fighting age" men to attack Americans "from within."[268] Trump has suggested that migrants should be put in special fighting leagues to fight for sport.[269]
Trump's "blood bath" comment
Trump received significant media attention over a March 16, 2024 rally, where in a section of a speech talking about the American automobile industry, Trump stated that "Now, if I don’t get elected, it’s going to be a blood bath for the whole — that’s going to be the least of it. It’s going to be a blood bath for the country."[270] Many commentators saw the use of the term "blood bath" as a call to political violence and congruent with the larger pattern of violent rhetoric that Trump has used during his 2024 campaign,[271][272][273][274][275] or that it was a call for another January 6-style attack.[276]
Trump later said that the quote was taken out of context and that he was referring to the American automobile industry, calling the controversy the result of the "Fake News."[277][278][279] Others said it was unclear exactly what Trump meant within the context of the speech.[279][280]
Lisa Friedman of The New York Times stated that even if Trump's comment referred to automobiles, it fit a pattern of increasingly brutal language Trump uses towards electric vehicles, and that some experts believe Trump is "normalizing violence by peppering a screed against electric vehicles with promises of a "blood bath" if he loses the election"[281] and that supporters of Trump have responded violently even when his language is ambiguous.[277]
Allegations of Nazi, far-right, antisemitic and white supremacist sentiments
Several of Trump's statements and actions have been accused of echoing Nazi rhetoric, far-right ideology, antisemitism, and white supremacy.[282][283]
Since fall of 2023,[28] Trump has stated that undocumented immigrants are "poisoning the blood of our country," which has been compared to racial hygiene rhetoric language echoing that of white supremacists and Adolf Hitler.[238][262] Trump's "poisoning the blood" comments resulted in greater media attention to Trump's past statements. Trump has repeatedly talked about "good genes" and previously mentioned "racehorse theory" during a campaign rally in 2020 which was used to justify selective breeding of humans and was criticized for connections to eugenics and Nazism during World War II.[284] Trump has also drawn criticism for past statements during the white supremacist and antisemitic Unite the Right rally in 2017, where he stated there were "very fine people on both sides."[282][283][285] In May 2024, Trump claimed Biden was running a "Gestapo administration" which was criticized for its comparisons to Nazi Germany's secret police.[286] On August 1, 2023, the Trump campaign compared Trump's criminal trials to "Nazi Germany in the 1930s, the former Soviet Union, and other authoritarian, dictatorial regimes." The statement was criticized by the Anti-Defamation League, which stated that the comparison "to Nazi Germany in the 1930s is factually incorrect, completely inappropriate and flat out offensive."[287]
In November 2022, Trump was widely criticized[288][289][290] after eating dinner with Kanye West and Nick Fuentes, a white nationalist and Holocaust denier at his Mar-a-Lago home.[291] Trump responded that West "unexpectedly showed up with three of his friends, whom I knew nothing about."[292][283]
In a campaign speech and a post on his social media site on Veterans Day, November 11, 2023, Trump called some of his political opponents "vermin," promising to "root out" the "communists, Marxists, fascists and the radical left thugs that live like vermin within the confines of our country that lie and steal and cheat on elections." Trump's use of the term "vermin" was criticized for echoing the fascist rhetoric of Benito Mussolini and Adolf Hitler.[239][240][293] Trump campaign spokesman Steven Cheung responded to criticism by saying:
Those who try to make that ridiculous assertion are clearly snowflakes grasping for anything because they are suffering from Trump Derangement Syndrome, and their sad, miserable existence will be crushed when President Trump returns to the White House.[240]
According to the New York Times, scholars are undecided about whether Trump's "rhetorical turn into more fascist-sounding territory is just his latest public provocation of the left, an evolution in his beliefs, or the dropping of a veil."[191]
On March 18, 2024, Trump was criticized for claiming "any Jewish person that votes for Democrats hates their religion," and that "they hate everything about Israel, and they should be ashamed of themselves because Israel will be destroyed." Following mounting criticism from Jewish groups, Trump's campaign responded that "Trump is right," and that the Democratic Party "has turned into a full-blown anti-Israel, antisemitic, pro-terrorist cabal." Jonathan Greenblatt of the Anti-Defamation League called Trump's comments "defamatory and patently false." Chief executive Amy Spitalnick of the Jewish Council for Public Affairs claimed that Trump was "further normalizing dangerous antisemites." Trump's comments were accused of evoking an antisemetic trope that Jews have a 'dual loyalty' and are more loyal to Israel than to their own countries.[294] Trump has since repeated that Jews who vote for Biden are betraying their religious and cultural identities multiple times during his 2024 campaign following his initial comments on March 18.[295]
"Unified Reich" social media video post
On May 20, 2024, Trump's campaign posted a video on Trump's Truth Social account, which showed hypothetical newspaper headlines in the event of a Trump victory.[296][297] Under one headline titled "What's next for America?" was a subtitle that read: "German industrial strength significantly increased after 1871, driven by the creation of a unified Reich", although the subtitle was not fully visible at all times, instead showing: "industrial strength significantly increased … driven by the creation of a unified Reich".[298][299] The Trump campaign deleted the video the next day after it drew bipartisan criticism, with criticism particularly focused on the phrase "the creation of a unified Reich"; President Biden commented that the video used "the language of Hitler's Germany".[297][300]
The Trump campaign responded that the video was not made by the campaign, but by a Trump supporter.[301] After CNN found the video's template on an online motion graphics template store, the contact form of the template linked up CNN with a Turkish graphic designer who said that he created the newspaper graphics in 2023, using online content on World War I to duplicate the phrase listed above.[296] That phrase was present in the Wikipedia article on World War I, added in November 2022 and later removed, reported the Associated Press.[297] The video also showed content stating that "15 million illegal aliens deported" from "28 July 1914 — 11 November 1918", a date period exactly matching World War I.[301] The Bulwark reported, citing anonymous sources, that Natalie Harp was the staffer who had posted the video.[302][303]
January 6th United States Capitol attack
Trump has embraced and celebrated the January 6 Capitol attack and has promoted a revisionist history of the event.[43] Trump has continually brought up the events of the January 6 attack on the Capitol during rallies and speeches for his 2024 campaign and has made it a political rallying cry.[44][304] Trump has repeatedly called those charged for their actions on that day "warriors," "hostages" and "great, great patriots" and has promised to pardon them if reelected to the presidency.[44][305] Trump has noticeably downplayed the events of that day, calling it a "beautiful day" with "so much love," and played a video of the attack[306] during a rally in Waco, Texas with a choir of former January 6 rioters singing the song Justice for All,[46][45] which he has continued to do at subsequent rallies and events.[307] Trump has spread baseless conspiracy theories at his rallies that "there was Antifa and there was FBI" at the riot.[308] The New York Times stated that Trump's comments "risked radicalizing his most die-hard supporters even further, encouraging them to repeat events like those that unfolded on Jan. 6." Robert Pape, a political scientist at the University of Chicago stated that Trump's comments on the attack "normalizes violence as a legitimate solution to political grievances."[43] Trump has played down but not ruled out violence after the 2024 election if he does not win, stating, "it depends."[247]
Claims
In rallies and interviews, Trump has repeatedly asserted that multiple events since the 2020 election would not have happened if he had won the election, those being the 2023 Hamas-led attack on Israel, the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, and inflation. Experts have stated that such events likely would still have happened even if Trump won the 2020 election. Jonathan Schanzer of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and Natan Sachs, the director of the Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution have stated that there was no Trump-era policy that would have stopped the Hamas attack on Israel.[309] Scholars have also estimated that Russia's invasion of Ukraine would likely still have occurred and that Trump's statements towards NATO and Russia would likely have made an initial unified response to the Russian invasion "implausable" and may have resulted in an early Russian victory.[310]
During his campaign speeches, Trump erroneously asserted that the Biden administration was in the process of converting U.S. Army tanks into electrically powered vehicles.[311][312][313]
In what CNN described as a "lie-filled CPAC speech" in February 2024, Trump repeated false claims about the 2020 election and the border wall.[314]
Campaign finances
On November 15, 2022, Trump announced his candidacy for the 2024 United States presidential election and set up a fundraising account.[315][316] In March 2023, the campaign began diverting 10 percent of the donations to Trump's leadership PAC which had paid $16 million for his legal bills by June 2023.[317] Trump's fundraising agreement with the Republican National Committee was noted to prioritize payments to his Save America PAC before the party itself.[318] Since leaving office in January, 2021 to March, 2024, Trump has spent more than $100 million in legal fees from campaign accounts.[319] Trump's leadership PAC Save America spent $76.5 million since March 30, 2023 to February, 2024, with approximately $47.4 million directly going towards legal expenditures.[320]
In early 2024, Trump noticeably lagged Biden in total fundraising in part due to his diverting of donations to pay legal bills related to his many criminal trials.[321] At the start of March, 2024, Trump's campaign had $50 million in cash on hand and Trump-aligned Super PACs had $52 million, while Biden's campaign had $155 million in cash on hand and Biden-aligned Super PACs had $64 million.[322] According to a March 28 Reuters article, large contributions made up 65% of Trump's support, compared to 55% of Biden's support.[323] In part due to low fundraising numbers, the Trump campaign announced in April that all candidates using Trump's name, image, and likeness needed to pay 5% of all funds raised to Trump National Committee JFC, and that "any split that is higher than 5% will be seen favorably by the RNC and President Trump’s campaign and is routinely reported to the highest levels of leadership within both organizations."[324]
On April 6, 2024, the Trump campaign self-reported a $50.5 million fundraising haul at the house of billionaire John Paulson.[325] By May 21, Trump reported a total April fundraising haul of $76.2 million, beating Biden's reported $51 million and beating Biden's total fundraising for the first time. The New York Times reported that Trump was widely expected to catch up in total fundraising once he secured the Republican nomination and signed a joint fundraising agreement with the RNC. Trump notably lagged Biden in total cash on hand, totaling $48 million to Biden's $84.5 million, both totals not including PAC money. Trump continued to spend millions on legal bills totaling $3.3 million.[326] In June, the Trump campaign reported a $141 million fundraising haul for May, beating Biden's $85 million haul. Trump and the RNC entered June with $235 million on hand compared to Biden's $212 million. The Trump campaign accredited the haul with the aftermath of his 34 felony convictions in May that raised $70 million in the 48 hours after the verdict and briefly crashed WinRed. Trump also received a $50 million donation from billionaire Timothy Mellon. The combination of Trump's improved fundraising and Biden's increased spending on television ads were noted to give Trump a cash advantage by summer 2024.[327]
Trump has been noted for an "unprecedented" mixing of personal business and political fundraising during his 2024 campaign.[328] Trump has promoted $59.99 bibles, $399 sneakers, $99 "Victory47" cologne, and $99 Trump-branded NFT digital trading cards for his personal, non-campaign accounts.[329][330] Trump's campaign has been noted for spending large sums of campaign money at Trump-owned businesses, in particular his Mar-a-Lago resort and the Trump National Doral Miami.[331]
Major donors
In May 2024, the Washington Post reported that around a dozen top oil executives, including Mike Sabel, CEO and founder of Venture Global LNG; Jack Fusco, CEO of Cheniere Energy; and top executives of Chevron, Continental Resources, Exxon, Occidental Petroleum, and other companies, attended a fundraising dinner at Trump's Mar-a-Lago club in April 2024. Trump asked them to give $1 billion to his campaign and pledged to immediately roll back environmental rules and policies implemented under President Biden, including clean energy and electric vehicles.[332] Greg Sargent argues that promises like these are corrupt and contributing to the impression that a Trump second term would be "unsettlingly chaotic and disruptive to the business climate."[333]
Campaign events
Trump's campaign events have been described as "freewheeling," like a "rock show," and "filled with lies and mistruths." Events frequently include claims of election denialism over the results of the 2020 presidential election, claims of victimization and persecution, anti-immigrant rhetoric, the retelling of unverified stories that showcase Trump's negotiating skills, and dark and apocalyptic messaging about the future if Trump does not win.[334] The Associated Press noted that "Trump's rallies take on the symbols, rhetoric and agenda of Christian nationalism."[335] Trump's rallies end with an instrumental song appropriated by the QAnon movement called "Mirrors."[179]
Notable events
On January 28, 2023, Trump held his first campaign events in South Carolina and New Hampshire.[336][337]
On March 4, 2023, Trump delivered a lengthy keynote speech at the CPAC convention, also attended by Nikki Haley, but not by other prospective Republican candidates. In his speech, Trump promised to serve as the retribution for those who were wronged, and stated that he was the only candidate who could prevent World War III.[338]
On March 25, Trump staged a rally in Waco, Texas during the 30th anniversary of the Waco siege,[339][340][341][342] and notably opened with a rendition of the song Justice for All featuring a choir of about 20 men imprisoned for their role in the January 6 Capitol attack.[343]
In late April, Trump suggested he was not interested in debating other Republican contenders, at least not until later in the year.[344]
On May 10, 2023, Trump appeared one-on-one with news host Kaitlan Collins on CNN Republican Town Hall with Donald Trump at Saint Anselm College in New Hampshire, with an audience of Republican and undecided voters.[345][346] During the event Trump took credit for the overturning of Roe v. Wade (1973), supported defaulting on the national debt in the debt ceiling showdown, and again falsely claimed that the 2020 election was stolen.[347] Trump also suggested pardoning those convicted as a result of the January 6 United States Capitol attack.[348]
On January 27, 2024, during a rally in Las Vegas ahead of the state's presidential caucus, Trump took credit for attempting to block a bipartisan border security deal in the works in the Senate. Trump repeated his claims that the border crisis was an "invasion," an "open wound," "a crime against our nation" and "an atrocity against our Constitution," and admitted that he did not want a deal to pass as it would be "another gift to the Radical Left Democrats" who "need it politically" and would impact a key plank of his reelection campaign.[349][350]
On February 23, 2024, Trump was criticized for comments during a campaign speech for saying his four criminal indictments and mug shot boosted his appeal among black voters and for comparing his legal jeopardy to historical anti-black discrimination.[351][352][353]
In June 2024, Trump reportedly described Milwaukee, the hosting city for the July 2024 Republican National Convention, as "a horrible city"; later, Trump responded to the reporting, stating to the media: "I love Milwaukee, I have great friends in Milwaukee, but it’s as you know, the crime numbers are terrible. We have to be very careful. But I was referring to also the election, the the ballots, the, the way it went down, it was very bad in Milwaukee."[354][355]
On July 13, 2024, Trump survived an assassination attempt at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. Trump was injured in his right ear. He was escorted out of the venue by United States Secret Service.[356][357] The shooter, identified by the FBI as Thomas Matthew Crooks, was shot and killed by the Secret Service.[358][359][360][361][362]
Eligibility
The questions of Trump's eligibility to run for president in 2024 are delineated by the U.S. Constitution. Two amendments addressing this issue are the 14th and 22nd Amendments. On the one hand, some scholars have argued, although Trump has been indicted multiple times, neither the indictments nor any resulting convictions would render him ineligible for the office.[363][364] On the other hand, conservative, originalist scholars have argued that Trump is ineligible because Section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment applies.[365]
On December 19, 2023, the Colorado Supreme Court ruled that Trump was disqualified from holding office and that his name must be removed from the Colorado Republican primary ballot. Trump's campaign said that he would appeal the decision to the U.S. Supreme Court.[366] On December 28, 2023, Maine's Secretary of State banned Trump from Maine's Republican primary ballot. The Trump campaign said that they would appeal the decision in Maine state courts, and the secretary of state suspended the ruling until the court's decision.[367] On March 4, 2024, the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Colorado's Supreme Court ruling, saying that states do not have the authority to disqualify Trump or other candidates from federal elections under the 14th Amendment's insurrection clause.[368][369]
14th Amendment
In the aftermath of the American Civil War, the 14th Amendment was passed. Section 3 of the amendment prohibits anyone from holding public office if they had previously sworn an oath to support the Constitution, but then "engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the [United States], or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof." Trump's role in the January 6 United States Capitol attack is cited by opponents as a reason for his disqualification from seeking public office.
The non-profit group Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) and other advocacy groups and individuals are planning state-by-state efforts to keep Trump off state ballots.[370][371] In 2023, court cases were brought in states including Colorado,[372] Michigan, Minnesota,[373] and New Hampshire.[374]
On December 19, 2023, the Colorado Supreme Court ruled in Anderson v. Griswold that Trump is ineligible to hold office under section three of the Fourteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution and cannot appear on the ballot for the 2024 United States presidential election in Colorado.[375] The ruling, which marks the first time a court has ever determined that a presidential candidate is disqualified due to section three of the 14th Amendment,[376] was stayed to allow for an appeal.[377] The Colorado Republican Party appealed.[378][379] Trump also appealed.[380] The U.S. Supreme Court agreed to hear the case.[381]
On March 4, 2024, the Colorado Supreme Court's ruling to disqualify Trump from the state's primary ballot was unanimously overturned by the United States Supreme Court.[382]
22nd Amendment
Trump has only been elected president once, in 2016, so is not limited from running again by the 22nd Amendment, which permits two full terms. Even before losing the 2020 election, he publicly proclaimed his willingness to seek a third term in 2024, despite this being explicitly prohibited. Trump claimed that he was entitled to a third term because Barack Obama had spied on him and his campaign.[383][384][385]
Trump has questioned presidential term limits on multiple occasions while in office, and in public remarks talked about serving beyond the limits of the 22nd Amendment. During an April 2019 White House event for the Wounded Warrior Project, he jokingly said he would remain president for 10 to 14 years,[200] and in March 2018 praised Xi Jinping for abolishing term limits.[199] During an April 2024 interview with Time magazine, Trump stated he would not be in favor of challenging the 22nd Amendment. During a May 2024 National Rifle Association convention, Trump suggested he would be a three term president.[197]
Trump is seeking to become the second president to ever serve non-consecutive terms, after Grover Cleveland who was re-elected in 1892. The last one-term president to campaign for a second non-consecutive term was Herbert Hoover, who after serving from 1929 to 1933 made unsuccessful runs in 1936 and 1940 after his loss in 1932.[386]
Post-announcement developments
Three days after Trump announced his candidacy, U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland appointed Jack Smith to serve as special counsel for the investigations regarding Trump's role in the January 6 attack and into mishandling of government records.[387][388] Special counsels can be appointed when there can be a conflict of interest or the appearance of it, and Garland said the announced political candidacies of both Trump and President Biden prompted him to take what he described as an "extraordinary step".[387] Special counsel investigations operate largely independent of Justice Department control under decades-old federal regulations, and Garland said the "appointment underscores the department's commitment to both independence and accountability in particularly sensitive matters".[388]
On November 19, 2022, Elon Musk, four weeks after taking ownership of Twitter, reinstated both Trump's personal account and Trump's campaign account, nearly two years after Trump was permanently banned from the platform by previous Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey, due to Twitter's Glorification of Violence and Civic Integerity policies, following the January 6 United States Capitol attack.[389]
In late November 2022, Kanye West announced his own candidacy for the 2024 presidential election. Shortly thereafter, West visited Trump at Mar-a-Lago, bringing with him Nick Fuentes, a white nationalist and Holocaust denier.[291][390] West claimed that after he asked Trump to be his vice-presidential candidate, "Trump started basically screaming at me at the table telling me I was going to lose".[391] Trump responded with a statement that West "unexpectedly showed up with three of his friends, whom I knew nothing about",[292] and in a further statement acknowledged advising West to drop out of the race.[392] Several other possible 2024 contenders spoke in the aftermath of this event, with Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson calling the meeting "very troubling",[288] and Trump's former vice president Mike Pence calling on Trump to apologize for giving Fuentes "a seat at the table".[289] Mitch McConnell said that Trump was unlikely to win the 2024 presidential election as a result of the dinner.[290]
On December 3, 2022, following the publication of "The Twitter Files" by Elon Musk, Trump complained of election fraud and posted to Truth Social, calling for "the termination of all rules, regulations, and articles, even those found in the Constitution."[393][394][395]
In early 2023, Trump told his staff to hire white nationalist and anti-Muslim activist Laura Loomer to work on his campaign. After a backlash, the campaign decided not to hire her.[396]
After several years of vilifying mail-in voting and early voting as rife with fraud and a contributor to supposed 2020 election fraud, by April 2024 Trump was advising supporters to use those voting methods in the coming election. The RNC was also encouraging Republican voters to use those methods, as well as promoting ballot harvesting, which they called "ballot chasing." Ballot harvesting was the subject of the 2022 Dinesh D'Souza film 2000 Mules, which falsely alleged an organized scheme by Democrats to commit fraud by the method.[397][398][399][400][401]
During the campaign, Trump often referred to "election integrity" to allude to his continuing lie that the 2020 election was rigged and stolen, as well as baseless predictions of future mass election fraud. As he did during the 2020 election cycle, without evidence Trump told supporters that Democrats might try to rig the 2024 election. Many Republicans believe a conspiracy theory claiming Democrats engage in systematic election fraud to steal elections, insisting election integrity is a major concern, though voting fraud is extremely rare. By 2022, Republican politicians, conservative cable news outlets and talk radio echoed a narrative of former Trump advisor Steve Bannon that "if Democrats don't cheat, they don't win." Appearing with Trump in April 2024, House Speaker Mike Johnson baselessly suggested "potentially hundreds of thousands of votes" might be cast by undocumented migrants; as president, Trump falsely asserted that millions of votes cast by undocumented migrants had deprived him of a popular vote victory in the 2016 election. Politico reported in June 2022 that the RNC sought to deploy an "army" of poll workers and attorneys in swing states who could refer what they deemed questionable ballots in Democratic voting precincts to a network of friendly district attorneys to challenge. In April 2024, RNC co-chair Lara Trump said the party had the ability to install poll workers who could handle ballots, rather than merely observe polling places. She also said that the 2018 expiration of the 1982 consent decree prohibiting the RNC from intimidation of minority voters "gives us a great ability" in the election. Trump's political operation said in April 2024 that it planned to deploy more than 100,000 attorneys and volunteers to polling places across battleground states, with an "election integrity hotline" for poll watchers and voters to report alleged voting irregularities. Trump told a rally audience in December 2023 that they needed to "guard the vote" in Democratic-run cities. He had complained that his 2020 campaign was not adequately prepared to challenge his loss in courts; some critics said his 2024 election integrity effort is actually intended to gather allegations to overwhelm the election resolution process should he challenge the 2024 election results. Marc Elias, a Democratic election lawyer who defeated every Trump court challenge after the 2020 election, remarked, "I think they are going to have a massive voter suppression operation and it is going to involve very, very large numbers of people and very, very large numbers of lawyers."[402]
In March 2024, veteran Republican elections attorney Charlie Spies joined the RNC as chief counsel, his role to include overseeing the deployment of lawyers and volunteers at polling places in battleground states in the campaign's election integrity effort. Spies resigned less than two months later, citing potential time commitment conflicts with the law firm where he remained employed. Trump had approved his hiring, but in recent weeks became angered that Spies had previously represented rivals Jeb Bush, Mitt Romney and Ron DeSantis, and had publicly disputed election denial claims that there had been fraud in the 2020 presidential election.[403][404]
On May 26, 2024, Trump spoke at the 2024 Libertarian National Convention.[405] During his speech, Trump made a play for the Libertarian Party's nomination and vowed to appoint a Libertarian to his cabinet.[406] Trump was eliminated during balloting, with Chase Oliver being selected as the Libertarian nominee.
Presumptive nominee
National primary polling showed Trump leading by 50 points over other candidates during the Republican primaries.[407] After he won a landslide victory in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses, Trump was generally described as being the Republican Party's presumptive nominee for president.[48][49][50] On March 12, 2024, Trump officially became the presumptive nominee of the Republican Party.[408]
Vice-presidential choice
Mike Pence served as Trump's vice president from 2017 to 2021, with Pence having been Trump's chosen running mate in both the 2016 and 2020 elections. In March 2021, Bloomberg News reported that if Trump runs again in 2024, Pence "likely won't be on the ticket" and that Trump had "discussed alternatives to Pence", while Trump's advisors "have discussed identifying a Black or female running mate for his next run".[409] In April 2021, Trump indicated that he was considering Florida governor Ron DeSantis for the position, noting his friendship with him;[410] he later criticized and ridiculed DeSantis[411] who launched his own presidential campaign on May 24, 2023.[412] In June 2022, a former aide testified that Trump had opined to his staff during the Capitol Hill attack that Pence "deserved" the chants of "hang Mike Pence" made by the rioters. However, on a Truth Social post, Trump denied that he said Pence deserved to be hanged.[413][414] Names raised as possible candidates for the position include:
- Doug Burgum, Governor of North Dakota (2016–present) and former 2024 presidential candidate[415][416][417]
- Tucker Carlson, political commentator[418]
- Ben Carson, U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development (2017–2021) and former 2016 presidential candidate[415][416][417][419]
- Tom Cotton, U.S. Senator from Arkansas (2015–present)[417]
- Byron Donalds, U.S. Representative from FL-19 (2021–present)[417][419][420]
- Tulsi Gabbard, Democratic U.S. Representative from HI-2 (2013–2021)[420]
- Nikki Haley, former Governor of South Carolina and former 2024 presidential candidate[419]
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr., environmental lawyer and independent 2024 presidential candidate[421]
- Kari Lake, former new anchor and 2024 candidate for U.S. Senator from Arizona[419]
- Kristi Noem, Governor of South Dakota (2019–present)[409][415][416][419][420]
- Vivek Ramaswamy, businessman and former 2024 presidential candidate[415][416][417][419][420]
- Marco Rubio, U.S. Senator from Florida (2011–present) and former 2016 presidential candidate[417][422]
- Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Governor of Arkansas (2023–present) and White House Press Secretary (2017–2019)[415][416]
- Tim Scott, U.S. Senator from South Carolina (2013–present) and former 2024 presidential candidate[409][416][419][420]
- Elise Stefanik, U.S. Representative from NY-21 (2015–present)[415][416][417][419]
- J. D. Vance, U.S. Senator from Ohio (2023–present)[415][416][417][419]
Trump has claimed that he has already picked his running mate, but refuses to tell anyone[423] and says that there is "only a 25 percent chance" he'll stick with the choice.[424]
In January 2024, independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. claimed that Trump had approached him to be his running mate and that he had refused the offer.[425] Trump campaign advisor Chris LaCivita denied that the Trump campaign had ever approached Kennedy to be Trump's running mate, however, and added that they had no plans on ever doing so.[426] In April, multiple sources close to Trump once again reported that he was considering Kennedy.[421]
In June, it was reported that the Trump campaign had delivered vetting paperwork to several candidates; namely Burgum, Carson, Cotton, Donalds, Rubio, Scott, Stefanik, and Vance.[417]
Endorsements
A number of Republican officials at both federal and state levels were quick to endorse Trump's candidacy, while others were noted for being silent on the question, with a few stating opposition, including Senator Bill Cassidy and Senator Mitt Romney.[427][428][429][430][431][432][433][excessive citations]
As of February 2024[update], Trump has received endorsements from 134 of 221 Republican House Representatives and 32 of 49 Republican Senators.[434]
Support
Politico noted in December 2020 that many Republican figures were expressing support for a Trump 2024 run, quoting Missouri Senator Josh Hawley as saying "If he were to run in 2024, I think he would be the nominee. And I would support him doing that."[435] National public opinion polling showed Trump quickly dominating the field of potential 2024 Republican candidates. Utah Senator Mitt Romney, though opposed to Trump, stated in February 2021 that if Trump ran in 2024, he would win the Republican nomination in a landslide.[436] The same month, Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said that he would "absolutely" support Trump if the latter were nominated again.[437]
In April 2022, American intelligence officials assessed that Russia intended to exact revenge on the Biden administration for its sanctions against Russia and aid for Ukraine by intervening in the election on Trump's behalf. A Russian state TV host, Evgeny Popov, said in March 2020, "to again help our partner Trump to become president".[438]
Opposition
In February 2023, Americans for Prosperity (AFP), the flagship of Charles Koch's network of donors and activist groups, announced it would fund a primary challenge to Trump.[439]
Besides the opposition to Trump's candidacy declared by Republican former executive branch officials[broken anchor], senators and representatives, statewide officials, public figures and organizations, Trump was challenged to primaries by Nikki Haley (February 14, 2023, to March 6, 2024), Vivek Ramaswamy (February 21, 2023, to January 15, 2024), Asa Hutchinson (April 6, 2023, to January 16, 2024), and Ron DeSantis (May 24, 2023, to January 21, 2024).
Other challengers, who withdrew before the primaries, were Perry Johnson (March 2, 2023, to October 20, 2023), Larry Elder (April 20, 2023, to October 26, 2023), Tim Scott (May 19, 2023, to November 12, 2023), Mike Pence (June 5, 2023, to October 28, 2023), Chris Christie (June 6, 2023, to January 10, 2024), Doug Burgum (June 7, 2023, to December 4, 2023), Francis Suarez (June 14, 2023, to August 29, 2023), and Will Hurd (June 22, 2023, to October 9, 2023).
When Nikki Haley announced her 2024 presidential campaign,[440] one of her first statements as a candidate was to call for candidates over the age of 75 - which would include both Trump and Biden - to be required to take a competency test.[441] She made the age issue a main campaign point during the rest of 2023 and the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries.[442][443][444] On November 28, 2023, AFP endorsed Nikki Haley.[445]
From August 23 to January 10, 2024, there were five debates among the candidates in the campaign for the Republican Party's nomination for president of the United States in the 2024 United States presidential election. Trump was absent from all of them, and was not planning to attend the debates scheduled for January 18 and 21, 2024.[446] On January 16, when she and Ron DeSantis were the last challengers left, Nikki Haley announced she would not attend the January 18 debate unless Donald Trump took part in it. ABC News canceled that debate,[447] and CNN canceled the January 21 one.[448]
Responding to Haley's challenge, Trump stated that he had successfully taken two cognitive tests,[449][450][451] said that anyone who donated to Haley's campaign would be "permanently barred" from the "MAGA camp,"[452][453][454] and he nicknamed her "birdbrain."[455][456][457]
On February 25, 2024, when she lost the election in her home state, Americans for Prosperity cut funding to Nikki Haley's campaign.[458][459] After winning the primaries in Washington, D.C. (March 3) and Vermont (March 5), Haley suspended her presidential campaign the day after Super Tuesday.[460][461]
Primary election polling
Trump led in primary polling by a wide margin, "with GOP primary voters still seeing him as best positioned to beat President Biden. Most would back Trump enthusiastically, were he to be renominated".[462]
General election polling
This section needs to be updated.(December 2023) |
Poll source | Date | Sample size[e] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RealClearPolitics | August 10–23, 2023 | – | – | 45% | 43% | 12% |
YouGov | May 25–30, 2023 | 1,015 (RV) | – | 48% | 41% | 11% |
Echelon Insights | May 22–25, 2023 | 1,035 (LV) | – | 46% | 44% | 10% |
Quinnipiac | May 18–22, 2023 | 1,616 (RV) | – | 48% | 46% | 6% |
Morning Consult | May 12–14, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 44% | 41% | 15% |
WPA Intelligence | May 10–13, 2023 | 1,571 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 47% | 40% | 13% |
YouGov/Yahoo News | May 5–8, 2023 | 1,060 (RV) | – | 45% | 43% | 12% |
Morning Consult | May 5–7, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | – | 44% | 42% | 14% |
Emerson College | April 24–25, 2023 | 1,100 (RV) | – | 43% | 41% | 16% |
Morning Consult | April 21–23, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | – | 43% | 42% | 15% |
Cygnal | April 18–20, 2023 | 2,500 (LV) | – | 46% | 45% | 9% |
Harvard/Harris | April 18–19, 2023 | 1,845 (RV) | – | 40% | 45% | 15% |
YouGov/The Economist | April 15–18, 2023 | 1,316 (RV) | – | 43% | 44% | 13% |
Premise | April 14–17, 2023 | 1,485 (RV) | – | 42% | 44% | 14% |
YouGov/Yahoo News | April 14–17, 2023 | 1,027 (RV) | – | 46% | 42% | 12% |
Morning Consult | April 14–16, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 40% | 17% |
YouGov/The Economist | April 8–11, 2023 | 1,322 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 43% | 44% | 13% |
Morning Consult | April 7–9, 2023 | 5,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 42% | 15% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | April 4, 2023 | 1,180 (LV) | – | 44% | 43% | 13% |
YouGov | April 1–4, 2023 | 1,319 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 44% | 14% |
Premise | March 31 – April 3, 2023 | 1,562 (RV) | – | 44% | 43% | 13% |
Rasmussen Reports | March 30 – April 3, 2023 | 971 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 47% | 13% |
Morning Consult | March 31 – April 2, 2023 | 5,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 42% | 41% | 17% |
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[A] | March 31 – April 1, 2023 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 47% | 10% |
YouGov/Yahoo News | March 30–31, 2023 | 729 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 45% | 43% | 12% |
Echelon Insights | March 27–29, 2023 | 1,007 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 47% | 44% | 9% |
Cygnal | March 26–27, 2023 | 2,550 (LV) | ± 1.9% | 47% | 45% | 8% |
Quinnipiac University | March 23–27, 2023 | 1,600 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 48% | 46% | 6% |
Morning Consult | March 24–26, 2023 | 5,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 42% | 15% |
Harvard/Harris | March 22–23, 2023 | 2,905 (RV) | – | 41% | 45% | 14% |
Marquette University | March 12–22, 2023 | 863 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 38% | 24% |
Premise | March 16–21, 2023 | 1,509 (RV) | – | 41% | 47% | 12% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | March 20, 2023 | 1,250 (LV) | – | 44% | 44% | 12% |
YouGov/Yahoo News | March 16–20, 2023 | 1,059 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 45% | 43% | 12% |
McLaughlin & Associates | March 16–20, 2023 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 43% | 48% | 9% |
Morning Consult | March 17–19, 2023 | 5,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 44% | 41% | 15% |
Quinnipiac University | March 9–13, 2023 | 1,635 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 49% | 45% | 6% |
Morning Consult | March 10–12, 2023 | 5,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 42% | 15% |
Wick Insights | March 6–9, 2023 | 1,125 (LV) | – | 45% | 43% | 12% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | March 7–8, 2023 | 1,201 (LV) | – | 44% | 44% | 12% |
Premise | March 4–7, 2023 | 1,621 (RV) | – | 44% | 45% | 11% |
Morning Consult | March 3–5, 2023 | 5,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 42% | 43% | 15% |
Cygnal | February 24–27, 2023 | 2,424 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 47% | 45% | 8% |
YouGov/Yahoo News | February 23–27, 2023 | 1,014 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 43% | 45% | 12% |
Susquehanna | February 19–26, 2023 | 800 (RV) | 52% | 39% | ||
Emerson College | February 24–25, 2023 | 1,060 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 42% | 46% | 12% |
Morning Consult | February 23–25, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | – | 43% | 41% | 16% |
Echelon Insights | February 21–23, 2023 | 1,023 (LV) | – | 47% | 44% | 9% |
McLaughlin & Associates | February 17–23, 2023 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 44% | 48% | 8% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | February 19, 2023 | 1,102 (LV) | – | 43% | 42% | 15% |
Morning Consult | February 17–19, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 42% | 41% | 17% |
Premise | February 16–19, 2023 | 1,717 (RV) | – | 44% | 42% | 14% |
Morning Consult | February 16–19, 2023 | 2,000 (RV) | ± 1.5% | 42% | 41% | 17% |
Harvard/Harris | February 15–16, 2023 | 1,838 (RV) | – | 41% | 46% | 13% |
Quinnipac University | February 9–14, 2023 | 1,429 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 48% | 46% | 6% |
Ipsos/Reuters | February 6–13, 2023 | 915 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 42% | 19% |
Morning Consult | February 10–12, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | – | 43% | 41% | 16% |
Rasmussen Reports | February 8–12, 2023 | 900 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 42% | 13% |
Public Policy Polling | February 10–11, 2023 | 1,056 (RV) | – | 49% | 45% | 6% |
YouGov/Yahoo News | February 2–6, 2023 | 1,063 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 47% | 41% | 12% |
Morning Consult | February 3–5, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 40% | 17% |
ABC News/The Washington Post | January 27 – February 1, 2023 | 895 (RV) | – | 45% | 48% | 7% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | January 28–29, 2023 | 1,139 (LV) | – | 39% | 41% | 20% |
Morning Consult | January 27–29, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 40% | 17% |
Echelon Insights | January 23–25, 2023 | 1,024 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 45% | 42% | 13% |
McLaughlin & Associates | January 19–24, 2023 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 43% | 48% | 9% |
Morning Consult | January 20–22, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 44% | 41% | 15% |
Emerson College | January 19–21, 2023 | 1,015 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 41% | 44% | 15% |
Cygnal | January 19–20, 2023 | 2,529 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 47% | 44% | 9% |
Marquette University | January 9–20, 2023 | 790 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 40% | 20% |
Harvard/Harris | January 18–19, 2023 | 2,050 (RV) | – | 41% | 46% | 13% |
YouGov/The Economist | January 14–17, 2023 | 1,314 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 42% | 12% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | January 16, 2023 | 1,458 (LV) | – | 39% | 41% | 20% |
YouGov/YahooNews | January 12–16, 2023 | 1,028 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 46% | 40% | 14% |
Morning Consult | January 10–12, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 40% | 17% |
Morning Consult | January 6–8, 2023 | 7,500 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 44% | 41% | 15% |
WPA Intelligence | January 2–8, 2023 | 1,035 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 41% | 10% |
Morning Consult | December 31, 2022 – January 2, 2023 | 8,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 44% | 40% | 16% |
Data for Progress | December 22–29, 2022 | 1,189 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 45% | 8% |
YouGov/Yahoo News | December 15–19, 2022 | 1,041 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 45% | 41% | 14% |
Morning Consult | December 16–18, 2022 | 7,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 41% | 16% |
Harvard/Harris | December 14–15, 2022 | 1,851 (RV) | – | 40% | 45% | 15% |
Echelon Insights | December 12–14, 2022 | 1,021 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 44% | 10% |
McLaughlin & Associates | December 9–14, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 45% | 48% | 7% |
Morning Consult | December 9–11, 2022 | 7,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 41% | 16% |
Suffolk University | December 7–11, 2022 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 47% | 40% | 13% |
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | December 3–7, 2022 | 1,500 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 45% | 43% | 12% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | December 5, 2022 | 1,162 (LV) | – | 41% | 41% | 18% |
YouGov/Yahoo News | December 1–5, 2022 | 1,204 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 45% | 42% | 13% |
Marquette University | November 15–22, 2022 | 840 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 34% | 22% |
Emerson College | November 18–19, 2022 | 1,380 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 45% | 41% | 14% |
Echelon Insights | November 17–19, 2022 | 1,036 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 42% | 45% | 13% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | November 17, 2022 | 1,203 (LV) | – | 43% | 42% | 15% |
Harvard/Harris | November 16–17, 2022 | 2,212 (RV) | – | 42% | 44% | 14% |
Léger | November 11–13, 2022 | 1,007 (A) | – | 36% | 33% | 31% |
Rasmussen Reports | November 8–9, 2022 | 1,767 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
Democracy Corps/GQR | November 6–8, 2022 | 1,000 (RV) | – | 46% | 48% | 6% |
Morning Consult | November 2–7, 2022 | 3,980 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 43% | 13% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | November 2, 2022 | 1,084 (LV) | – | 39% | 44% | 17% |
YouGov/Yahoo News | October 27–31, 2022 | 1,172 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 48% | 42% | 10% |
Benenson Strategy Group | October 27–30, 2022 | 1,000 (V) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 43% | 12% |
Echelon Insights | October 24–26, 2022 | 1,014 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 45% | 46% | 9% |
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | October 22–26, 2022 | 1,500 (RV) | – | 46% | 46% | 8% |
Suffolk University | October 19–24, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 42% | 12% |
Emerson College | October 18–19, 2022 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 40% | 17% |
YouGov/Yahoo News | October 13–17, 2022 | 1,209 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 46% | 44% | 10% |
McLaughlin & Associates | October 12–17, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 44% | 50% | 6% |
Rasmussen Reports | October 12–13, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 44% | 16% |
Harvard/Harris | October 12–13, 2022 | 2,010 (RV) | – | 43% | 45% | 12% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | October 12, 2022 | 1,110 (LV) | – | 40% | 41% | 19% |
Siena College/The New York Times | October 9–12, 2022 | 792 (LV) | – | 44% | 45% | 11% |
John Zogby Strategies | October 5, 2022 | 1,006 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 45% | 41% | 14% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | October 2–3, 2022 | 1,128 (LV) | – | 43% | 41% | 16% |
YouGov/Yahoo News | September 23–27, 2022 | 1,138 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 47% | 45% | 8% |
McLaughlin & Associates | September 17–22, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 45% | 49% | 6% |
Emerson College | September 20–21, 2022 | 1,368 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 45% | 44% | 11% |
ABC News/The Washington Post | September 18–21, 2022 | 908 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 48% | 6% |
Premise | September 16–19, 2022 | 1,703 (A) | – | 51% | 49% | – |
Echelon Insights | September 16–19, 2022 | 1,056 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 47% | 44% | 9% |
Refield & Wilton Strategies | September 14–15, 2022 | 1,163 (LV) | – | 43% | 40% | 17% |
Marquette University | September 6–14, 2022 | 1,282 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 42% | 36% | 22% |
Siena College/The New York Times | September 6–14, 2022 | 1,399 (RV) | – | 45% | 42% | 13% |
Harvard/Harris | September 7–8, 2022 | 1,854 (RV) | – | 42% | 45% | 13% |
Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 1,228 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 45% | 9% |
YouGov/Yahoo News | September 2–6, 2022 | 1,247 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 48% | 42% | 10% |
Premise | September 2–5, 2022 | 1,185 (RV) | – | 51% | 49% | – |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | August 28, 2022 | 1,050 (LV) | – | 40% | 42% | 18% |
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | August 17–25, 2022 | 1,313 (RV) | – | 50% | 44% | 6% |
Emerson College | August 23–24, 2022 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 42% | 15% |
McLaughlin & Associates | August 20–24, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 45% | 49% | 6% |
Echelon Insights | August 19–22, 2022 | 1,054 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 47% | 42% | 11% |
YouGov/Yahoo News | August 18–22, 2022 | 1,185 (RV) | – | 46% | 42% | 12% |
Redfield and Wilton Strategies | August 17, 2022 | 1,156 (LV) | – | 39% | 42% | 19% |
YouGov/Yahoo News | July 28 – August 1, 2022 | 1,152 (RV) | – | 45% | 42% | 13% |
Redfield and Wilton Strategies | July 29, 2022 | 1,094 (LV) | – | 35% | 42% | 23% |
Harvard/Harris | July 27–28, 2022 | 1,885 (RV) | – | 41% | 45% | 14% |
Rasmussen Reports | July 26–27, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 46% | 14% |
Suffolk University | July 22–25, 2022 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 41% | 14% |
Emerson College | July 19–20, 2022 | 1,078 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 43% | 46% | 11% |
Echelon Insights | July 15–18, 2022 | 1,022 (LV) | – | 46% | 44% | 10% |
The Trafalgar Group (R) | July 11–14, 2022 | 1,085 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 43% | 48% | 10% |
YouGov/Yahoo News | July 8–11, 2022 | 1,261 (RV) | – | 44% | 43% | 13% |
Redfield and Wilton Strategies | July 9, 2022 | 1,078 (LV) | – | 41% | 43% | 16% |
The New York Times/Siena College | July 5–7, 2022 | 849 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 44% | 41% | 14% |
Harvard/Harris | June 28–29, 2022 | 1,308 (RV) | – | 40% | 43% | 17% |
Emerson College | June 28–29, 2022 | 1,271 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 39% | 44% | 17% |
YouGov/Yahoo News | June 24–27, 2022 | 1,239 (RV) | – | 46% | 43% | 11% |
McLaughlin & Associates | June 17–22, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 44% | 49% | 7% |
Echelon Insights | June 17–20, 2022 | 1,030 (LV) | – | 45% | 43% | 12% |
Redfield and Wilton Strategies | June 15, 2022 | 1,064 (LV) | – | 38% | 41% | 21% |
YouGov/Yahoo News | June 10–13, 2022 | 1,243 (RV) | – | 42% | 44% | 14% |
Redfield and Wilton Strategies | May 30, 2022 | 1,173 (LV) | – | 38% | 42% | 20% |
Emerson College | May 24–25, 2022 | 1,148 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 42% | 44% | 14% |
Echelon Insights | May 20–23, 2022 | 1,020 (LV) | – | 45% | 44% | 11% |
YouGov/Yahoo News | May 19–22, 2022 | 1,360 (RV) | – | 44% | 42% | 14% |
Harvard/Harris | May 18–19, 2022 | 1,963 (RV) | – | 42% | 45% | 13% |
Redfield and Wilton Strategies | May 17, 2022 | 1,120 (LV) | – | 39% | 42% | 19% |
Rasmussen Reports | April 28 – May 2, 2022 | 1,004 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 36% | 50% | 14% |
Redfield and Wilton Strategies | May 1, 2022 | 1,096 (LV) | – | 40% | 44% | 16% |
Emerson College | April 25–26, 2022 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 43% | 15% |
McLaughlin & Associates | April 22–26, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 43% | 50% | 7% |
Morning Consult | April 22–25, 2022 | 2,004 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 45% | 44% | 11% |
InsiderAdvantage (R) | April 21–23, 2022 | 750 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 43% | 47% | 10% |
YouGov/Yahoo News | April 19–22, 2022 | 1,187 (RV) | – | 43% | 41% | 16% |
Harvard/Harris | April 20–21, 2022 | 1,966 (RV) | – | 43% | 45% | 12% |
Echelon Insights | April 18–20, 2022 | 1,001 (LV) | – | 45% | 44% | 11% |
Redfield and Wilton Strategies | April 18, 2022 | 1,500 (LV) | – | 41% | 43% | 16% |
YouGov/Yahoo News | March 31 – April 4, 2022 | 1,233 (RV) | – | 45% | 40% | 15% |
Redfield and Wilton Strategies | April 3, 2022 | 1,205 (LV) | – | 38% | 43% | 19% |
Marquette Law School | March 14–24, 2022 | 1,004 (A) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 37% | 22% |
Harvard/Harris | March 23–24, 2022 | 1,990 (RV) | – | 41% | 47% | 12% |
McLaughlin & Associates | March 17–22, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 46% | 49% | 5% |
Echelon Insights | March 18–21, 2022 | 1,050 (RV) | – | 46% | 44% | 10% |
University of Massachusetts Lowell | March 15–21, 2022 | 873 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 44% | 42% | 14% |
Redfield and Wilton Strategies | March 20, 2022 | 1,193 (LV) | – | 41% | 41% | 18% |
Emerson College | March 18–20, 2022 | 1,023 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 45% | 13% |
YouGov/Yahoo News | March 10–14, 2022 | 1,225 (RV) | – | 47% | 39% | 14% |
Redfield and Wilton Strategies | March 8, 2022 | 1,194 (LV) | – | 40% | 42% | 18% |
Wall Street Journal | March 2–7, 2022 | 1,500 (RV) | – | 45% | 45% | 9% |
Schoen Cooperman Research | March 2–6, 2022 | 800 (LV) | – | 44% | 44% | 12% |
YouGov/Yahoo News | February 24–27, 2022 | 1,532 (A) | ± 2.9% | 40% | 39% | 21% |
NewsNation | February 23–24, 2022 | 1,046 (RV) | – | 37% | 41% | 22% |
Harvard/Harris | February 23–24, 2022 | 2,026 (RV) | – | 42% | 48% | 10% |
Echelon Insights | February 19–23, 2022 | 1,078 (RV) | – | 45% | 43% | 12% |
Redfield and Wilton Strategies | February 23, 2022 | 1,367 (LV) | – | 42% | 38% | 20% |
McLaughlin & Associates | February 16–22, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 45% | 48% | 7% |
Emerson College | February 19–20, 2022 | 1,138 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 44% | 48% | 8% |
Redfield and Wilton Strategies | February 6, 2022 | 1,406 (LV) | – | 41% | 41% | 18% |
YouGov/Yahoo News | January 20–24, 2022 | 1,568 (A) | ± 2.8% | 42% | 40% | 18% |
Morning Consult | January 22–23, 2022 | 2,005 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 45% | 44% | 11% |
Echelon Insights | January 21–23, 2022 | 1,098 (RV) | – | 47% | 43% | 10% |
Marquette Law School Archived January 28, 2022, at the Wayback Machine | January 10–21, 2022 | 1,000 (A) | – | 43% | 33% | 24% |
Harvard/Harris | January 19–20, 2022 | 1,815 (RV) | – | 40% | 46% | 14% |
McLaughlin & Associates | January 13–18, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 44% | 49% | 7% |
Redfield and Wilton Strategies | January 8–9, 2022 | 1,430 (LV) | – | 39% | 38% | 23% |
PMC/John Bolton Super Pac Archived January 20, 2022, at the Wayback Machine | January 6, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 44% | 11% |
Rasmussen Reports | January 5, 2022 | 1,015 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 46% | 14% |
InsiderAdvantage (R) | December 17–19, 2021 | 750 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 41% | 49% | 10% |
Redfield and Wilton Strategies | December 18, 2021 | 1,411 (LV) | – | 34% | 39% | 27% |
YouGov/Yahoo News | December 9–13, 2021 | 1,558 (A) | – | 47% | 41% | 12% |
Echelon Insights | December 9–13, 2021 | 1,098 (RV) | – | 47% | 44% | 9% |
Redfield and Wilton Strategies | December 5, 2021 | 1,387 (LV) | – | 38% | 42% | 20% |
Harvard/Harris | November 30 – December 2, 2021 | 1,989 (RV) | – | 45% | 48% | 7% |
Rasmussen Reports | November 22–23, 2021 | 1,200 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 32% | 45% | 23% |
Wall Street Journal | November 16–22, 2021 | 1,500 (RV) | – | 46% | 45% | 10% |
Echelon Insights[permanent dead link] | November 12–18, 2021 | 1,013 (RV) | – | 45% | 45% | 10% |
McLaughlin & Associates | November 11–16, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 44% | 49% | 7% |
Redfield and Wilton Strategies | November 15, 2021 | 1,500 (RV) | – | 35% | 41% | 24% |
Marquette Law School Archived November 20, 2021, at the Wayback Machine | November 1–10, 2021 | 1,004 (A) | – | 42% | 34% | 24% |
YouGov/Yahoo News | November 4–8, 2021 | 1,673 (A) | – | 43% | 39% | 18% |
Suffolk University | November 3–5, 2021 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 40% | 44% | 16% |
Emerson College | November 3–4, 2021 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 45% | 12% |
Redfield and Wilton Strategies | October 31, 2021 | 1,387 (LV) | – | 42% | 42% | 16% |
Harvard/Harris | October 26–28, 2021 | 1,578 (LV) | – | 45% | 46% | 9% |
YouGov/Yahoo News | October 19–21, 2021 | 1,704 (A) | – | 43% | 40% | 17% |
Echelon Insights | October 15–19, 2021 | 1,098 (RV) | – | 48% | 42% | 10% |
Redfield and Wilton Strategies | October 17, 2021 | 1,366 (LV) | – | 42% | 40% | 18% |
Selzer and Company/Grinnell College | October 13–17, 2021 | 745 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 40% | 40% | 19% |
Redfield and Wilton Strategies | October 4–6, 2021 | 1,345 (LV) | – | 43% | 41% | 16% |
Echelon Insights | September 17–23, 2021 | 1,005 (RV) | – | 50% | 39% | 11% |
Rasmussen Reports | September 21–22, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 51% | 8% |
Redfield and Wilton Strategies | September 19–20, 2021 | 1,330 (LV) | – | 42% | 40% | 18% |
McLaughlin & Associates | September 9–14, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 47% | 50% | 3% |
Redfield and Wilton Strategies | September 4–5, 2021 | 1,357 (LV) | – | 45% | 42% | 13% |
Emerson College | August 30 – September 1, 2021 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
Rasmussen Reports | August 16–17, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 43% | 20% |
YouGov/Yahoo News | July 30 – August 2, 2021 | 1,552 (A) | – | 47% | 37% | 16% |
PMC/John Bolton Super Pac Archived July 19, 2021, at the Wayback Machine | July 8, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 46% | 43% | 11% |
YouGov/Yahoo News | June 22–24, 2021 | 1,592 (A) | – | 47% | 35% | 18% |
YouGov/Yahoo News | May 24–26, 2021 | 1,588 (A) | – | 46% | 36% | 18% |
YouGov/Yahoo News | May 11–13, 2021 | 1,561 (A) | – | 48% | 36% | 16% |
Ipsos/Reuters | April 12–16, 2021 | 1,106 (A) | – | 45% | 28% | 27% |
PMC/John Bolton Super Pac Archived September 29, 2021, at the Wayback Machine | April 3–7, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 46% | 42% | 12% |
Poll source | Date | Sample size[e] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Liz Cheney Independent |
Others/ Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ipsos/Reuters[463] | February 6–13, 2023 | 915 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 32% | 39% | 15% | 14% |
Premise[464] | September 2–5, 2022 | 1,185 (RV) | – | 37% | 42% | 21% | – |
Echelon Insights[465] | August 19–22, 2022 | 1,054 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 38% | 41% | 12% | 9% |
YouGov/Yahoo News[466] | August 18–22, 2022 | 1,185 (RV) | – | 32% | 40% | 11% | 17% |
Poll source | Date | Sample size[e] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Andrew Yang Forward |
Others/ Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Echelon Insights[465] | August 19–22, 2022 | 1,054 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 43% | 39% | 8% | 10% |
Echelon Insights[467] | October 15–19, 2021 | 1,098 (RV) | – | 44% | 40% | 5% | 11% |
Poll source | Date | Sample size[e] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Donald Trump Independent |
Others/ Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ipsos/Reuters[468] | May 9–15, 2023 | 4,415 (A) | – | 37% | 19% | 22% | 22% |
Ipsos/Reuters[469] | April 21–24, 2023 | 1,005 (A) | – | 38% | 19% | 22% | 21% |
Echelon Insights[465] | August 19–22, 2022 | 1,054 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 46% | 23% | 21% | 10% |
Poll source | Date | Sample size[e] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Generic Republican |
Others/ Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NBC News[470] | November 10–14, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 37% | 48% | 15% |
NBC News[471] | April 14–18, 2023 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 41% | 47% | 12% |
Morning Consult[472] | April 22–25, 2022 | 2,004 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 39% | 46% | 15% |
Morning Consult[473] | January 22–23, 2022 | 2,005 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 37% | 46% | 17% |
See also
Notes
- ^ Trump received enough delegates to win the nomination on March 12, 2024.
- ^ Attributed to multiple references:[179][180][181][182][183][184][185][186]
- ^ Attributed to multiple references:[179][180][181][182][183][184][185][186]
- ^ Attributed to multiple references:[217][218][219][165][220][221]
- ^ a b c d e Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
- ^ This poll was sponsored by Trump's campaign
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[Trump] tried to delegitimize the election results by disseminating a series of far fetched and evidence-free claims of fraud. Meanwhile, with a ring of close confidants, Trump conceived and implemented unprecedented schemes to – in his own words – "overturn" the election outcome. Among the results of this "Big Lie" campaign were the terrible events of January 6, 2021 – an inflection point in what we now understand was nothing less than an attempted coup.
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A good case can be made that the storming of the Capitol qualifies as a coup. It's especially so because the rioters entered at precisely the moment when the incumbent's loss was to be formally sealed, and they succeeded in stopping the count.
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As with the Beer Hall Putsch, a would-be leader tried to take advantage of an already scheduled event (in Hitler's case, Kahr's speech; in Trump's, Congress's tallying of the electoral votes) to create a dramatic moment with himself at the center of attention, calling for bold action to upend the political order. Unlike Hitler's coup attempt, Trump already held top of office, so he was attempting to hold onto power, not seize it (the precise term for Trump's intended action is a 'self-coup' or 'autogolpe'). Thus, Trump was able to plan for the event well in advance, and with much greater control, including developing the legal arguments that could be used to justify rejecting the election's results. (p3)
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{{cite news}}
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External links
- Campaign website
- Philbrick, Ian Prasad; Bentahar, Lyna (December 5, 2023). "Donald Trump's 2024 Campaign, in His Own Menacing Words". The New York Times. Archived from the original on December 5, 2023.