1912 Republican Party presidential primaries

Republican Presidential Primaries, 1912

March 19 to June 4, 1912

Nominee William Taft Teddy Roosevelt Party Republican Republican Home state Ohio New York Delegate count 566 466 States carried 2 (P) + 32 (C) 8 (P) + 8 (C) Popular vote 800,441 1,183,238 Percentage 34.59% 51.14%   Nominee Robert Marion La Follette Albert B. Cummins Party Republican Republican Home state Wisconsin Iowa Delegate count 36 10 States carried 2 (P) - Popular vote 327,357 - Percentage 14.15% -

The Republican Party during the Taft Administration

During his first year in office, President Taft set in motion a series of events leading to a split in the Republican Party. By the middle of 1909, the more progressive Republicans were complaining that Taft was granting the more business-minded Republicans total leeway on the filling of political positions.

The off-year elections of 1909 were to a large degree fought on local issues relating to reform, and they were mostly a draw between the two parties. In New York State, Governor Charles E. Hughes asked the legislature to pass a bill providing for primary elections for each state office except Presidential Elector. The proposal for primaries became the major issue in the state legislative elections, in which the Democrats gained five seats. Gubernatorial races were retained by the Republicans in Rhode Island and Massachusetts, though in the latter state bolting reformers almost delivered the race to the Democrats. Reformers won control of the mayorship of Indianapolis, but "machine" candidates won in New York City, Buffalo, Albany, and Cincinnati.

The following year (1910), former Pres. Roosevelt and sitting VP James Sherman sought to be the temporary chairman of the New York State Republican convention. Sherman's victory there was the first sign that the progressive Republicans faced major challenges if they wanted to work within the party. The rift spilled over into Michigan, where local conventions in the summer became polarized over Theodore Roosevelt.

Intra-party tension cost the Republicans dearly in the midterm elections of 1910. Their major defeat was in Congress. In the Senate, the Democrats took ten seats from the Republicans, cutting the margin in half. The Democrats took control of the U.S. House, defeating 45 incumbent Republicans to move from a 47 vote deficit to a majority of 67. In gubernatorial races, the Democrats took Idaho, Maine, and New Jersey while the Republicans took Nebraska, Nevada, and Tennessee. An Independent was elected in Wyoming, taking that seat out of the Republican column.

Establishing the Initial Presidential Primaries

A major goal of the progressives in 1911 was a push for primaries. By July 12th, at least six states had passed legislation for delegates to the national convention to be chosen in primaries: North Dakota, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Oregon, New Jersey, and Florida. Progressive Republicans increased their calls for primaries following the off-year election of 1911. On the interesting date of November 11th (11/11/11), leading Progressives contacted all Republican state chairmen and asked them to provide for selection of delegates to the upcoming Republican National Convention by primaries. Sen. Albert B. Cummins, a moderate progressive from Iowa, endorsed the idea and asked Republicans to stop pressing him to run for President.

An interesting primary election law issue at the time was the issue of "instructing." If a delegate were chosen in a primary based on support of a particular candidate, could that delegate be legally bound to vote for that candidate? The issue arose during the debates in Ohio, where the old law of 1908 providing for voluntary primaries was being debated. In 1908, Taft managed to sweep the Ohio Republican primary by having his "anti-machine" candidates for delegates printed in a column under his name and the "machine delegates," who supported Sen. Joseph Foraker, placed in a column under Foraker's name. This informal pledging of delegates was not part of the 1908 law, but Ohio lawmakers were generally opposed to the "popularity contest" model unless the delegates voted accordingly.

The significance of the Ohio discussion became clear quickly. Sen. Cummins drafted a bill providing for a national presidential primary. He recommended that a national primary on August 1st choose the candidates. The national conventions would adopt the platform and organize the party but nothing else. The machinery for determining the winner would be similar to that for counting the electoral votes.

The Primary Season of 1912

Presidential Candidates

• 
  President
  William Howard Taft
  of Ohio
• 
  Former President
  Theodore Roosevelt
  of New York
• 
  Senator
  Robert M. La Follette
  of Wisconsin
• 
  Senator
  Albert B. Cummins
  of Iowa

During the last two months of 1911, Progressive Republican leaders questioned how to proceed for the spring primaries. LaFollette was gaining endorsements from progressives around the nation, but he was perceived to be too radical for the party. One by one, leading progressives began to come out for President Roosevelt. On November 21st, Roosevelt's name was officially entered into a primary, that of Nebraska. Roosevelt finally announced on December 23rd that he would accept the nomination if granted to him, but that he would not campaign for it. This was interpreted as the go-ahead for Roosevelt delegates to contest each state.

The jockeying by Taft, Roosevelt, and LaFollette began in state conventions and continued through the primary season. By the time of the first presidential preference primary, held in North Dakota on March 19th, Taft was leading in the delegate count with 127 to 10 for his challengers. These delegates had been chosen in conventions. Voters who braved the cold rain in North Dakota on primary day handed the first official presidential primary to LaFollette. The campaign there was almost exclusively a Roosevelt vs. LaFollette race; LaFollette ended up with 57% to 40% for TR and 3% for Taft. Roosevelt explained the loss was due to Democrats who voted for LaFollette to embarrass his candidacy. President Taft's first major victory came in New York's primary on March 26th. Just before the vote, the New York Times reported that Taft had won 134 out of the 170 delegates chosen nationwide. New York Republicans voted overwhelmingly for Taft, by roughly a 2:1 margin; New York City gave Taft nearly 70% of the vote there. It was a stunning repudiation of Roosevelt in his home state and his second loss in the first two presidential primaries.

Roosevelt changed his strategy following his New York debacle. He issued an ultimatum to Republicans on March 28th to nominate him, or he would run as an independent. With local conventions being held nearly on a daily basis, Roosevelt was falling further behind in the delegate counts. LaFollette scored another major victory on April 2nd when he won his home state of Wisconsin. He defeated Taft by a 73-26% margin; Roosevelt missed the filing deadline but received some write-in votes. Roosevelt's fortunes began to change with the Illinois primary on April 9th. In his first primary victory, TR won 61% of the vote to Taft 29% and LaFollette 10%. Roosevelt won every county, though Taft won some Congressional Districts in Chicago.

In the two weeks following the Illinois primary, Roosevelt won three states. He defeated Taft by a 60-40% margin in PA on April 13th. Nebraska and Oregon voted on April 19th, with Roosevelt winning Nebraska with 59% and Oregon with 40%. Taft ended the month with a 50-48% win in Massachusetts. However, due to the MA ballot offering a presidential preference separate from the delegate vote, TR won more delegates even though he placed second. By the end of the month, Roosevelt was leading in delegates chosen in primaries with 179 to 108 for Taft and 36 for LaFollette. The nationwide delegate count, however, was Taft 428, TR 204, and LaFollette 36.

Five states voted in the final four weeks of the primary season, and Roosevelt won all five states. He won Maryland 53-47 over Taft. In California, Roosevelt received 55% to Taft's 27% and LaFollette's 18%. The major shock of the primary season was Roosevelts's 55-40% defeat of Taft in his home state of Ohio on May 21st. One week later, Roosevelt won New Jersey, 56-41%. The primary season wrapped up with South Dakota, where Roosevelt won with 55%.

Altogether, Roosevelt won 290 delegates in the primaries to 124 for Taft and 36 for LaFollette. Including delegates chosen in party conventions however, Taft had a 566-466 margin, placing him over the 540 needed for nomination.

Primary Results

		Theodore Roosevelt	William Taft	Robert La Follette
March 19	North Dakota	39.7%	3.1%	57.2%
March 26	New York	33.57%	66.43%	0%
April 2	Wisconsin	0.3%	26.1%	73.2%
April 9	Illinois	61.1%	29.2%	9.8%
April 13	Pennsylvania	59.7%	40.3%	0%
April 19	Nebraska	58.7%	21.5%	17.1%
April 19	Oregon	40.2%	28.5%	31.3%
April 30	Massachusetts	48.3%	50.4%	1.2%
May 5	Maryland	52.8%	47.2%	0%
May 14	California	54.6%	27.3%	18.1%
May 21	Ohio	55.3%	39.5%	5.2%
May 28	New Jersey	56.3%	40.5%	3.2%
June 4	South Dakota	55.2%	28.9%	15.9%