Enlargement of the European Union

The European Union (EU) was originally created by the six founding states in 1952, but has grown to its current size of 25 member states. There were five successive enlargements during this period, with the largest occurring on May 1, 2004, when 10 new member states joined.

The EU will have 27 member states when further enlargement takes place in 2007, with the addition of Romania and Bulgaria. Negotiations are also underway with other states. The process of enlargement is sometimes referred to as European integration or even European Empire.

In order to join the European Union, a state needs to fulfill the economic and political conditions generally known as the Copenhagen criteria (after the Copenhagen summit in June 1993). Also, according to the EU Treaty, each current member state and the European Parliament have to agree to any enlargement.

Past enlargements

States colour-shaded according to entry (darkest being earliest)

Main article: History of the European Union

• 9 May 1950 — French Foreign Minister Robert Schuman presents his proposal of a united Europe, known as the Schuman declaration, which is considered to be the beginning of what is now the European Union.

• 23 July 1952 — The Treaty of Paris entered into force establishing the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC). Founding members were the Benelux countries (Belgium, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg), West Germany, France, and Italy.

• 1958 — The ECSC forms the European Economic Community, which later becomes the European Community (EC).

• 1 January 1973 (First Enlargement) — Denmark, Ireland, and the United Kingdom accede to the EC.

• 1 January 1981 (Second Enlargement) — Greece accedes to the EC.

• 1985 — Granted home rule by Denmark six years earlier, Greenland decides to leave the EC following a referendum. See Special member state territories and their relations with the EU for details.

• 1 January 1986 (Third Enlargement) — Spain and Portugal accede to the EC.

• 3 October 1990 — East Germany and West Germany reunify (see German reunification), automatically adding the former East Germany to the EC; reunification adds to the EC's area and population, but not the number of member states.

• 1 November 1993 — The Maastricht Treaty takes effect, formally establishing the European Union.

• 1 January 1995 (Fourth Enlargement) — Austria, Finland, and Sweden accede to the EU.

• 1 May 2004 (Fifth Enlargement, part I) (refactored from fifth) — Comprising the largest number of countries ever admitted at one time, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia accede to the EU.

Criteria and methods

In 1989, the European Community's Phare programme was created, in order to provide financial support for potential accession countries so that they could expand and reform their economies. Phare became a tool to help candidate countries reach the previously mentioned criteria [1], developed in 1993 to guide the enlargement process. (see also Copenhagen criteria) These state that the candidate countries must have achieved:

• stability of institutions guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law, human rights and respect for and protection of minorities
• the existence of a functioning market economy as well as the capacity to cope with competitive pressure and market forces within the Union
• the ability to take on the obligations of membership including adherence to the aims of political, economic & monetary union

In December, 1993, the Madrid European Council revised the membership criteria to include conditions for member country integration through the appropriate adjustment of its administrative structures: since it is important that European Community legislation be reflected in national legislation, it is critical that the revised national legislation be implemented effectively through appropriate administrative and judicial structures.

In order to assess progress achieved by countries in preparing for accession to the European Union, the European Commission submits 'Regular Reports' to the European Council. These serve as the basis upon which the Council takes decisions on negotiations or their extension to other candidates. Since 1993, the Commission has presented a complete set of Regular Reports on a yearly basis, covering the 10 associated countries in Central and Eastern Europe (Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia) as well as Cyprus, Malta and Turkey.

External links to the Regular Reports: 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004

File:Adesport.jpg Treaty of Accession of Portugal to European Communities

File:Enlarg.jpg The heads of State or government and the ministers of foreign affairs of the 25 EU member states following the signature of the Treaty of Accession.

Current enlargement processes

Acceding countries

Population and GDP per capita of EU member states and candidates.

Bulgaria and Romania comprise the second part of the EU's fifth enlargement(refactored from fifth) and are currently scheduled to join it on January 1, 2007. This date was firmly set at the Thessaloniki Summit in 2003 and confirmed at Brussels on June 18, 2004. The country reports of October 2004 also affirmed the January 1, 2007 date of accession for both Bulgaria and Romania. Bulgaria and Romania signed their Treaty of Accession on April 25, 2005 at Luxembourg's Neumuenster Abbey.

Currently there is a clause (Article 39(1) of the Accession Protocol) in the Accession Treaty of Bulgaria and Romania about a possible postponement of the joining date to 1 January 2008. Decision will be taken, according to the progress in implementing the commitments by the applicant states, in the Spring of 2006. The decision should be taken unanimously by the European Council. The question is formulated in such a way, that even one opposing current member state is enough to default the outcome to 1 January 2007 accession ("the Council may, acting unanimously on the basis of a Commission recommendation, decide that the date of accession of that State is postponed by one year to 1 January 2008.").

Bulgaria

Main article: Accession of Bulgaria to the European Union

Within the framework of integration meetings held between the EU member states and Bulgaria, the latest 'Association Committee' was held on 22 June, 2004. It confirmed overall good progress for the preparation of accession, however, it highlighted the need for further reform of Bulgaria's Judicial structures (particularly in its pre-trial phases), as well as the need for further efforts to fight against corruption and organized crime (including the trafficking of people). There has also been limited progress in with regards to the integration of the Roma community. The findings are reflected in the 2004 Regular Report.

Bulgaria's objective is EU membership in 2007; the Thessaloniki Summit Conclusions in 2003 as well as the Brussels Summit Conclusions of June 2004 states that the EU supports these objectives. The Brussels European Council of December 17 2004 confirmed the conclusion of accession negotiations with Bulgaria, welcoming it as a member on January 1, 2007.

Romania

Main article: Accession of Romania to the European Union

According to the last Commission Regular Report 2004, Romania continues to fulfill the political criteria and it has further consolidated and deepened the stability of its institutions. However, the effectiveness of the reforms of the public administration and the judiciary is dependent on Romania's ability to effectively implement the changes.

The Brussels Summit conclusions of December 2004 supports Romania's accession for 2007. The European Council also considered that Romania will be able to assume all the obligations of membership at the envisaged time of its accession, provided that it continues its efforts to that end and completes all necessary reforms and commitments undertaken, in particular important commitments regarding Justice, 'Competition' and Environment.

The Accession treaty was subsequently signed in Luxembourg on 25 April 2005.

Candidate countries

File:CrudeEU27-1-.png

  current members

  acceding countries

  official candidate countries

  potential candidate countries

Croatia

Main article: Accession of Croatia to the European Union

Croatia applied for EU membership in 2003, and the European Commission recommended making it an official candidate in early 2004. Candidate country status was granted to Croatia by the European Council (the EU's heads of government) in mid-2004 and a date for the beginning of entry negotiations, while originally set for early 2005, was postponed to October of the same year. As of late 2005, Croatia is undergoing the screening process.

After Slovenia, Croatia has recovered best from the break-up of the former Yugoslavia and so hopes to become the second former Yugoslav state to become a member. It has a stable market economy and better statistical indicators than some of the states that joined in 2004.

In late 2005, the EU officials projected that the accession of Croatia would likely happen between 2008 and 2010. The finalisation of all chapters of the acquis communautaire is expected in 2008 or 2009, while signing the accession treaty would happen in the year after. Before starting negotiations with Croatia, the acquis was divided into 35 chapters, 4 more than the usual 31; the new chapters, previously part of the agricultural policy, are areas expected to be troublesome, as they were with the other applicants.

Originally Croatia had been aiming for a 2007 accession date -- such an accomplishment would have broken Slovakia's record of 2.5 years of negotiations to complete the process. It has been remarked by Olli Rehn that the EU does expect a similar speed from Croatia. Still, the EU needs to consider its internal problems before accommodating any new member after 2007; under the current Treaty of Nice, the machinery of the EU will be hard-pressed to accommodate 27 members. The EU Constitution provided one solution to this problem, but its democratic rejection means that other solutions are required.

Republic of Macedonia

Republic of Macedonia applied to become an official candidate on March 22, 2004. On November 9, 2005 the European Commission recommended it become a candidate state. EU leaders agreed to this recommendation on December 17, formally naming the country as an official candidate, but no date for starting negotiations has been announced yet.

The country has a dispute with its southern neighbour Greece over the name Macedonia (see: Foreign relations of the Republic of Macedonia). Because of this (and as Greece is one of the EU member states), the EU only recognizes the country as the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM) and this is the only name by which the country may hold negotiations with the EU. Resolution of this issue is not a precondition for membership ([2]), but if the dispute is not settled FYROM may be the official name of the country in the EU institutions even after eventually achieving full membership.

Peace is maintained with underlying ethnic tensions over Albanians in the west that achieved greater autonomy through the implementation of the Ohrid Accords. Unlike Serbia it has maintained sovereignty over all its territory. The country's officials have suggested that it could join between 2010 and 2015.

On December 17th the European Council welcomed and congratulated the country's achievements in implementing multiple reforms and agreements (Copenhagen criteria, Stabilisation and Association process, Stabilisation and Association Agreement, Ohrid Framework Agreement). It supports the continuation of this process. Further concrete steps in the country's EU membership (i.e. commencing of negotiations) will be possible after the debate on the general Enlargement policy of the EU (the debate is due to finish in the first half of 2006). The Council notes also that the absorption capacity of the EU will be taken into account (Presidency Conclusions – Brussels, 15/16 December 2005, 15914/05 7, EN: [3]).

Turkey

Main article: Accession of Turkey to the European Union

The status of Turkey with regard to the EU has become a matter of major significance and considerable controversy in recent years. Turkey has been an Associate Member of the EU and its predecessors since 1963; the country formally applied on April 14, 1987, but 12 years passed before it was recognised as a candidate country in 1999. After a summit on December 17, 2004, the European Council announced that membership negotiations with Turkey were officially opened on October 3, 2005. The screening process began on October 20, 2005.

Turkey is part of the common EU customs territory since the entering into force of the EU-Turkey Customs Union in 1996.

Those opposed to Turkey's accession make diverse arguments. First, only a small fraction of Turkish territory lies in the common geographical definition of Europe. More importantly, Turkey refuses to officially recognise Cyprus, a current EU member state, until a solution is found to the Cyprus dispute under the auspices of the United Nations. Many opponents also argue that Turkey's current government still does not respect many key principles expected of a liberal democracy because of discrimination against ethnic minorities like the Kurds, and maintaining of an extreme form of forced-secularism, often targeting its own Muslim majority. The EU has expressed concerns recently about the rise of nationalism in Turkey and the adverse effect thereof on the accession process. Its large population would also alter the balance of power in the representative European institutions.

Arguments in favour of Turkey joining include the belief that this would bolster democratic institutions in Turkey, strengthen the EU economy, and reward Turkey for its pro-NATO stance. Proponents also argue that it abides by most conditions for accession. Some believe that the EU can no longer refuse Turkey, as it has had an open candidacy for over 40 years, and has made major improvements in human rights in order to try to satisfy the entry conditions. Further, admitting Turkey, a predominantly Muslim country, would send a strong signal to the rest of the world that a “clash of civilizations” could be avoided although it could also create new problems as seen in radical Islamic teaching suppressing women's rights and free democratic principles.

Potential candidate countries

The EU relations with the Western Balkans states (Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia and Montenegro, and Albania) were recently moved from the "External Relations" to the "Enlargement" policy segment. These states currently are not formal candidate countries, but only "potential candidate countries" [4]. This is a consequence of the advancement of the Stabilisation and Association process.

The Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (which disintegrated into the states of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia and Montenegro, Macedonia, Croatia, and Slovenia) was a non-democratic communist state, with a relatively benign regime compared to Soviet satellites. It had a good economy, and many citizens lived higher above the poverty line than those of member states Greece, Spain, and Portugal. The civil war changed this but has led to independent democratic states, which have all adopted EU integration as an aim of foreign policy.

Albania, a separate Balkan state, was for a long period under international isolation similar to that of modern day North Korea and very impoverished. It has also adopted EU integration as an aim.

The 2003 European Council summit in Thessaloniki set integration of the Western Balkans as a priority of EU expansion. A further meeting in Mamaia, Romania, concluded that "Serbia and Montenegro, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Macedonia, and Albania are considered likely to join the EU between 2010 and 2015" depending on their fulfillment of the adhesion criteria. This summit was attended by two EU members, five countries now in the EU, acceding countries Bulgaria and Romania, and the seven EU hopefuls (Croatia, Serbia-Montenegro, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Macedonia, Albania, Moldova, and Ukraine). Since that meeting, Croatia and Macedonia have become EU candidate countries.

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Bosnia and Herzegovina still has many economic as well as political problems. Recently it has been making slow but steady progress, including co-operation with the War Crimes Tribunal at The Hague, so the outlook is positive.

Negotiations on Stabilisation and Association Agreement started during the year 2005. This is the first step before making an application for candidate status and membership negotiations.

The Union may show some leniency regarding its economy due to the political issues at stake. Former President of the European Commission Romano Prodi has stated that Bosnia has a chance of joining the EU soon after Croatia, somewhere around 2010, but it is entirely dependent on progress and that it may be delayed as late as 2014.

Serbia and Montenegro

Serbia and Montenegro may join separately because of economic disputes between the two republics which still have to settle the decision of whether to continue in a union (around 2006). A referendum will be held on May 21, 2006 to determine whether the republics will stay together. The last time the question was voted on the majority chose to maintain the union.

Serbia has to deal with ethnic tension in the region of Kosovo (which may lead to independence for Kosovo) as well as poverty in the south and widespread corruption. Montenegro is experiencing ecological, judicial and crime-related problems. Serbia and Montenegro began the reform process in 2000.

The European Commission and the government of Serbia and Montenegro are currently planning to prepare the country for joining in between 2012 and 2015, if possible, together with Bosnia and Macedonia. But it seems much more likely that it would happen around 2015 due to many domestic problems, and extensive reforms that should be implemented. In a report published on April 12, 2005, the European Commission gave a positive recommendation for the start of talks on a Stabilisation and Association Agreement. The recommendation to start SAA talks was accepted on October 3 2005 and negotiations have started in November 2005.

The fact that Radovan Karadžić and Ratko Mladić still haven't been found is an obstruction in these negotiations.

Albania

Albania's accession to the Union depends on economic improvement and the resolution of border disputes. Given its comparatively recent engagement with Western European politics, it is impossible to predict when it may join but it hopes to do so within a decade. Its entry has been set as a priority by the European Commission so as to stabilise the Balkans. Albania hopes to join alongside the rest of the Balkans between 2010-2015. Albania has started Stabilisation and Association Agreement negotiations in 2003 and finished them in February 2006.

Progress of future enlargements

It is probable that future enlargements will take place in "waves" (past experience shows that new member states are mostly admitted in groups, with the sole exception of Greece); Croatia and Macedonia joining first, possibly around 2010, and Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia and Montenegro, and Turkey following, either together or in smaller groups.

The dates mentioned as expected in the table are the earliest ones - the formal procedures do not allow speedier admission in most cases (for example, it takes at least two years to move from a membership application to the start of negotiations). However, EC members and EU ministers have warned that a more individual approach will be implemented in future, and there will be no more groups of admissions - solely individual admissions, the timing of which may coincide.

	Candidates				Potential candidates				Reference states
Event	Turkey	Croatia	Macedonia		Albania	Serbia and Montenegro	Bosnia and Herzegovina		Czech Republic	Slovakia	Bulgaria
SAA1 negotiations start	1959 (AA)	2000	2000		2003	2005	2005		1990	1990	1990
SAA signature	1963 (AA) 1995 (CU)	2001	2001		2006	(2006)	(2006)		1993	1993	1993
SAA entry into force	1996 (CU)	2005	2004		(2007)	(2007)	(2007)		1995	1995	1995
Membership application submitted	1987	2003	2004		(2007)	(2007)	(2007)		1996	1995	1995
Candidate status received	1999	2004	2005		(2008)	(2008)	(2008)		1998	1999	1999
Membership negotiations start	2005	2005	(2007)		(2009)	(2009)	(2009)		1998	2000	2000
Expected negotiations end	(2012)	(2007)	(2010)		(2012)	(2012)	(2012)		2002	2002	2004
Expected EU joining date	(2015)	(2009)	(2012)		(2015)	(2015)	(2015)		2004	2004	(2007)
Acquis chapter
1. Free Movement of Goods	s	s	-
2. Freedom of Movement for Workers	-	-	-
3. Right of Establishment & Freedom to provide Services	fs	fs	-
4. Free Movement of Capital	fs	fs	-
5. Public Procurement	fs	fs	-
6. Company Law	-	-	-
7. Intellectual Property Law	(s)	(s)	-
8. Competition Policy	fs	fs	-
9. Financial Services	(s)	(s)	-
10. Information Society & Media	-	-	-
11. Agriculture & Rural Development	s	s	-
12. Food safety, Veterinary & Phytosanitary Policy	(s)	(s)	-
13. Fisheries	(s)	(s)	-
14. Transport Policy	-	-	-
15. Energy	(s)	(s)	-
16. Taxation	(s)	(s)	-
17. Economic & Monetary Policy	(s)	(s)	-
18. Statistics	-	-	-
19. Social Policy & Employment2	(s)	(s)	-
20. Enterprise & Industrial Policy	(s)	(s)	-
21. Trans-European Networks	-	-	-
22. Regional Policy & Coordination of Structural Instruments	-	-	-
23. Judiciary & Fundamental Rights	(s)	(s)	-
24. Justice, Freedom & Security	s	s	-
25. Science & Research	fs	fs	-
26. Education & Culture	fs	fs	-
27. Environment	(s)	(s)	-
28. Consumer & Health Protection	(s)	(s)	-
29. Customs Union	(s)	(s)	-
30. External Relations	-	-	-
31. Foreign, Security & Defence Policy	-	-	-
32. Financial Control	(s)	(s)	-
33. Financial & Budgetary Provisions	-	-	-
34. Institutions	-	-	-
35. Other Issues	-	-	-

¹ Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) for the Western Balkans states, Association Agreement and Customs Union for Turkey, Europe Agreement for the reference states.
² Including anti-discrimination and equal opportunities for men and women.

(brackets): expected date s - screening of the chapter fs - finished screening o - open chapter x - closed chapter

situation of policy area at the start of membership negotiations, according to [5].   non-acquis chapter - nothing to adopt   no major difficulties expected   further efforts needed   considerable efforts needed   very hard to adopt   current situation totally incompatible with EU acquis

Future enlargement possibilities

In the Treaty of Maastricht (Article 49), it is stated that any European country that respects the principles of the European Union may apply to join. The Copenhagen European Council set out the conditions for EU membership in June 1993 in the so-called Copenhagen criteria. Whether a country is European or not is a subject to political assessment by the EU institutions, but countries in the Council of Europe that fall onto the border (between Europe and Asia) all have a significant claim for EU membership (as shown with the accession of geographically Asian Cyprus).

The European Union has tended to enlarge along regional lines, adding groups of nearby nations. (A notable exception was the accession of Greece.) Currently, the EU is very interested in the integration of the Balkan states. Of Eastern Europe, Heather Grabbe of the Centre for European Reform has said, "Belarus is too authoritarian, Moldova too poor, Ukraine too large, and Russia too scary for the EU to contemplate offering membership any time soon." Due to the 2004 "Orange Revolution" in Ukraine, and the "Rose Revolution" in Georgia in 2003, both countries have started and already implemented extensive reform programs, and an "open door" for both Ukraine and the South Caucasus now exist.

The following sections discuss the situation of those states and entities concerning which the issue of EU membership has been discussed in official circles.

The European Free Trade Association

Switzerland

Switzerland took part in negotiating the EEA agreement with the EU and signed the agreement on 2 May 1992 and submitted an application for accession to the EU on 20 May 1992. A Swiss referendum held on 6 December 1992 rejected EEA membership. As a consequence, the Swiss Government decided to suspend negotiations for EU accession until further notice, but its application remains open. The popular initiative entitled "Yes to Europe!", calling for the opening of immediate negotiations for EU membership, was rejected on March 4, 2001. The Swiss Federal Council (which is in favour of EU membership) had advised the population to vote against this referendum since the preconditions for the opening of negotiations had not been met. It is thought that the fear of a loss of neutrality and independence is the key issue against membership among eurosceptics. EU membership however continues to be the objective of the government and is a "long-term aim" of the Federal Council.

The Swiss federal government policy has recently undergone substantial U-turns in policy, however, concerning specific agreements with the EU on freedom of movement for people, workers and areas concerning tax evasion have been addressed within the Swiss banking system. This was a result of the first Switzerland-EU summit in May 2004 where nine bilateral agreements were signed. Romano Prodi, President of the European Commission, said the agreements "moved Switzerland closer to Europe." Joseph Deiss of the Swiss Federal Council said, "We might not be at the very centre of Europe but we're definitely at the heart of Europe". He continued, "We're beginning a new era of relations between our two entities." [6].

Norway

Main article: Norway and the European Union

Norway, one of the richest countries in the world, is like most other Scandinavian states insofar as it is reluctant to surrender sovereignty to a supranational entity. The Norwegian government also wishes to keep control of oil, gas and fishery resources in their territorial waters. Norway has applied four times for EEC and EU membership. In 1962 and 1967 France vetoed Norway's entry, while the later 1972 referendum and the 1994 referendum were both lost by the government. In late 2004, the now former Prime Minister Kjell Magne Bondevik suggested that the debate about joining the EU might be restarted in 2007. The 2005 constitution referenda in France and the Netherlands have however made this less likely, and in mid-October 2005, after the elections, the new Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg stated that there wouldn't be a new attempt at EU membership under his government.

Thorbjørn Jagland, President of the Parliament, has proposed that Norway and Iceland should prepare a common strategy before launching membership negotiations with the EU. His Icelandic counterpart has expressed agreement.

Norway is also a member of the European Economic Area (the EU common market), the Schengen treaty and an associate member of the Western European Union as well as other areas normally considered as under the EU umbrella of treaties and agreements. Norway is also a long term NATO member since 1947.

Further reading: *History of Norway-EU relations from the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs

Iceland

Main article: Iceland and the European Union

Iceland has never applied for EU membership but is already associated with the union through the EEA where it has access to the Single market. Iceland is also a member of the Schengen treaty.

Fear of losing control over the fishery resources in its territorial waters is the single largest issue keeping Iceland reluctant to join the EU, also a large issue for Norway. Since these two countries have so much in common it is generally expected that they would join together as it would not be easy for Iceland to be the only Nordic country to remain outside the EU. The government has established a committee to look into ways to protect fishing privileges in case of an EU accession.

Application for EU membership is not on the current centre-right government's agenda and none of the political parties have explicitly expressed that Iceland should join the union. The Left-Green Movement has been firmly opposed to membership and the same goes for the conservative Independence Party, a member of the ruling coalition, although its chairman Davíð Oddsson indicated in a speech in January 2005 that a policy change was not ruled out depending on how the EU will evolve in coming years.

Prime Minister Halldór Ásgrímsson of the Progressive Party has predicted that Iceland will join the EU by 2015, and said that the decisive factor for Iceland would be the future and the size of the Eurozone. He admitted however that the right political situation doesn't exist at the moment to take a decision on the issue. [7]

Liechtenstein

Liechtenstein is, like Norway and Iceland, a member of the European Economic Area. It might consider joining the EU if Switzerland joins. If it attained membership it would be by far the smallest member state of the European Union — this might require a significant rearrangement of voting arrangements in the European Parliament.

Eastern Europe

Belarus, Moldova, and Ukraine, which are or have been closely linked to Russia, will probably remain outside the Union, at least for a significant amount of time. They are not currently on any enlargement agenda as the Union is currently focused on the Balkan states and Turkey. A summit in Mamaia, Eastern Romania, in May 2004 has shown enlargement to Eastern Europe to be a definite possibility, though only Ukraine and Moldova were present, as Belarus is currently not concerned with membership.

Ukraine

Most political factions of Ukraine advocate joining the EU and developing ties with Europe. However some in the EU are more doubtful concerning Ukraine's prospects. In 2002, EU Expansion Commissioner Günter Verheugen said that "a European perspective" for Ukraine does not necessarily mean membership in 10 or 20 years, however, that does not mean it is not a possibility. A Ukraine-EU Troika meeting in April 2004, on the eve of the newest wave of expansion, dealt a blow to Ukraine's European aspiration when the EU ministers failed to grant market economy status to Ukraine but all this happened before the Orange Revolution in Ukraine.

For the time being, Ukraine will most likely develop intermediate relation with the EU as it is strongly backed by all major political forces in Poland, an EU member with strong historical ties with Ukraine (through the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth).

The Orange Revolution of late 2004 improved Ukraine's European prospects: Opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko hinted that he would press the EU for deeper ties, and described a four-point plan: the acknowledgement of Ukraine as a market economy, entry in the World Trade Organization, associate membership with the European Union, and lastly full membership. [8] In a similar way, the Ukrainian government asked Brussels to give Ukraine a clearer prospect for membership, saying that "The approved Action Plan reflects only the level of Ukraine-EU relations that we could have reached before the presidential elections in 2004" [9]

On January 13, 2005 the European Parliament almost unanimously (467 votes to 19 in favour) passed a motion stating the wish of the European Parliament to establish closer ties with Ukraine with the possibility of EU membership. Though there is still a long way to go before negotiations about EU membership can start, the European Commission has stated that future EU membership will not be ruled out. Yushchenko has responded to the apathetic mood of the Commission by stating that he intends to send an application for EU membership "in the near future" and that he intends to scrutinise Ukraine's relationship with the CIS in order to assure EU integration is possible and if not to make it possible. Several EU leaders have already stated strong support for closer economic ties with Ukraine but have stopped short of direct support for such a bid. On 21 March 2005, Polish Foreign Minister Adam Daniel Rotfeld noted that Poland will in every way promote Ukraine's desire to be integrated with the EU, get the status of a market-economy country and join the WTO. He also said "At the present moment, we should talk concrete steps in cooperation instead of engaging in empty talk about European integration". Three days later, a poll of the six largest EU nations conducted by a French research company showed that the European public would be more likely to accept Ukraine as a future EU member than any other country.

In October, 2005 Commission president Jose Manuel Barroso said that the future of Ukraine is in the EU. On November 9, 2005, however, the European Commission has in a new strategy paper suggested that the current enlargement agenda (Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia and in the future the other ex-Yugoslavian countries) could block the possibility of a future accession of Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova. Commissioner Olli Rehn said that the EU should avoid overstretch, adding that the current enlargement agenda is already very heavy. [10]

Moldova

Moldova currently has little hope of joining, since it is not only hampered by poverty but also facing political problems in Transnistria and only recently (1995) resolved problems in ethnically separate Gagauzia. Its relationship with Romania, which is set to soon become a EU member, has also been strained, with Moldova publicly accusing Romania in various aspects. The prospect of union with Romania is constantly an issue, even though many people are expecting this not to happen. If Romania joins the EU, and Moldova unifies with the country later, it could automatically become part of the EU just as East Germany joined the EU when it reunified with West Germany in 1990.

The government has stated that Moldova has European aspirations but there has been little progress. On May 1, 2004 many EU enthusiasts waving the EU flags found their flags confiscated by police and some were arrested under the clause of "anti-nationalism." At present it remains the poorest country in Europe with rampant corruption and a sadly booming trade in people.

On October 6, 2005 the EU opened its permanent mission in Chişinău, the capital city of Moldova.

Belarus

The EU's relations with Belarus are strained as the EU's institution have several times condemned the government of Belarus for authoritarian and anti-democratic practices, and even imposed sanctions on the country [11]. If conditions remain the same, it is unlikely that Belarus will ever join the EU. Under its current president, Belarus has instead sought a close confederation with Russia, short of political reunion. Recent accusations of unfair elections in march 2006 (where Lukashenko was re-elected) have further diminished the chances of Belarus joining.

Russia

Among the most vocal supporters of closer ties between Russia and the EU has been Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi. In an article published to Italian media on 26 May, 2002 he said that the next step in Russia’s growing integration with the West should be EU membership. [12] More recently on 17 November, 2005, he commented in regards to the prospect of such a membership "I am convinced that even if it is a dream ... it is not too distant a dream and I think it will happen one day". [13] Berlusconi has made similar comments in other occasions as well. [14]

At present, however, the prospect of Russia joining the EU any time in the near future is slim. Analysts have commented that Russia is "decades away" from qualifying for EU membership. [15]. Former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder has also said that though Russia must "find its place both in NATO, and, in the longer term, in the European Union, and if conditions are created for this to happen" that such a thing is not economically feasible in the near future. [16]

The Kaliningrad exclave is still an issue between the EU and Russia as well as the fact that Russia has not yet ratified border treaties with Latvia and Estonia.

Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan which has a portion of its territory in Europe is considered a European nation by the Council of Europe (as expressed in an official offer for full membership in 1999) but the subject of joining the EU has not been even remotely discussed.

South Caucasus

The three south Caucasus states of Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan have been the site of much conflict in 1990s. Currently, there seems to be an overwhelming feeling of hope in the region's future. Their EU membership would be conditional on the political assessment by the European Council about whether or not they are considered European. Some of these states are located partially in Europe and some of them are located entirely in Asia. Nevertheless all three states are admitted as full members into the Council of Europe (like Cyprus) after similar assessment process. They have contributed to European culture and the EU has been said to express interest in their integration and the hope to end war in Europe and increase prosperity. Before the first official visit of external relations commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner to the three caucasus states, it was stated that if she were asked about enlargement, she would not rule it out. [17]

The Caucasus states are, however, closely linked with Russia and would need to concentrate more on their European partners to attain candidate membership. It is unclear as to when they may join but they are part of the European Neighbourhood Policy and are often referred to as part of "a wider Europe". Since their only land contact with existing EU states is through either Russia or Turkey, it is possible that they could only join after Turkey did so. Greece, a member since 1981, has no land links with the rest of the EU, and will not until both Romania and Bulgaria have joined, though Greece is considerably closer to the rest of the union and unencumbered by powerful neighbours like Russia in between.

Armenia

Several Armenian officials have expressed the desire for their country to eventually become an EU member state. [18], some predicting that it will make an official bid for membership in a few years [19].

Public opinion in Armenia suggests the move for membership would be welcomed, with 64% out of a sample of 2000 being in favour, with only 11.8% being against. [20]

Armenia is still in conflict over the disputed area Nagorno-Karabakh with neighbouring Azerbaijan. A ten year ceasefire has been in place, but tensions remain high. The country's economy is growing very slowly and foreign investors are said to be extremely wary. The Metsamor nuclear power plant, which is sited some 40km west of the Armenian capital Yerevan, is built on top of one of the world's most active seismic zones and so would have to be closed for any contemplation of their joining. Recently Armenia has told the EU they will not close the plant, which has led to the freezing of €100m worth of aid by the EU and deterioration of the Armenia-EU relationship.

Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan, a predominantly Muslim country, would need to resolve the conflict over the disputed area of Nagorno-Karabakh. Its military spending is becoming somewhat of an alarm to the EU, which wishes to ease tensions in the area. The oil-rich country has made improvements to its infrastructure but much of the money does not seem to find its way into its fragile economy.

The recent presidential elections in Azerbaijan were disputed by the opposition and have been criticised for being not entirely democratic, free or fair by international observers. This is one of the main obstacles ahead of a possible EU application from Azerbaijan, although it has not expressed wishes to join the EU but, if it did, one can assume that integration would be long delayed. It would most likely face difficulties similar to Turkey's. Azerbaijan's chances of membership would, however, be greatly increased if Georgia joined first.

Georgia

Georgia has recently undergone substantial reforms. Under Georgia's new president Mikhail Saakashvili, the wish to join the EU has been explicitly expressed on several occasions and the links to the EU and the USA are being strengthened. Disputes continue over South Ossetia and Abkhazia. In Ajaria, the authoritarian leader Aslan Abashidze was forced to resign in May 2004.

Georgia is the most favoured Caucasus country to join the EU, but territorial disputes and corruption are still an issue. It has not, as yet, applied for EU membership, but the President has said the country would be ready in three years' time—however, it is uncertain if the EU would be. It is debatable whether any estimate on a membership date can be made at this stage.

Microstates

As for the very small European microstates, such as Liechtenstein, San Marino, Andorra and Monaco, it is unlikely that they will ever join, as their very existence as sovereign nations is tightly bound up with their special economic laws, which are not compatible with EU standards. In the case of Andorra, however, a future accession to the EU is not entirely impossible, should either Andorra reform their fiscal system or the EU reform its stance on interaction with microstates [21]. Vatican City is also unlikely to join the EU due to its unique status in the European continent as a theocracy.

Despite the fact that Europe's microstates will probably remain politically separated from the EU for the foreseeable future, their economies have always been tightly related with their neighbours, and all of the microstates (save Liechtenstein, which uses the Swiss franc), use the Euro currency (San Marino, Monaco and Vatican City mint their own Euro coins as well).

Dependencies of EU member states

There are multiple Special member state territories, some of them are not fully covered by the EU treaties and apply EU law only partially, if at all. See also the territories not covered by the Schengen treaty. It is possible for a dependency to change its status regarding the EU and/or some particular treaty or law provision. The territory may change its status from participation to leaving or from being outside to joining.

Greenland

Denmark's Greenland is a well-known example for a member state special territory that changed its status in regard to coverage of EU treaties and laws. After the establishment of Greenland's home rule in 1979 (effective from 1980), a second referendum on membership was held, where the people decided to leave the community. On February 1, 1985, Greenland left the EEC and EURATOM. Danish nationals residing in Greenland (i.e. all native population) are nonetheless fully European citizens; they are not, however, entitled to vote in European elections.

Non-European states

In the Treaty of Maastricht (Article 49), it is stated that any European country (as defined by the EU political assessment) that respects the principles of the European Union may apply to join. No mention is made of enlarging the EU to include non-European countries, but the precedents of turning down Morocco's application and speaking about Israel's closest integration, "just short of full membership" suggests that currently it is impossible for non-European states to get full EU membership.

However, some non-European states have different degrees of integration with the EU stipulated by agreements, always short of membership. The current frameworks for development of such agreements are the Barcelona process and the European Neighbourhood Policy.

Morocco

Morocco has submitted application to join the EU (then EEC) in July 1987, but it has been turned down by the European Commission later in the year. The application was rejected on the grounds that it did not consider Morocco a European country. Other factors such as the developing economy or unresolved border issues with several of its neighbours and the occupation of Western Sahara are hindering even adoption of other policies like those applied to Tunisia.

Cape Verde

Cape Verde is an island nation of the Atlantic Ocean and former Portuguese colony. In March 2005, former Portuguese president Mário Soares launched a petition urging the European Union to start membership talks with it, saying that Cape Verde could act as a bridge between Africa, Latin America and the EU [22].

Cape Verde has a culture based on Christian values where about 97% of the population is Christian, and its background is a harmonious fusion between European and African backgrounds, where most of the population (about 80%) is mixed Portuguese and African, less than 20% is African, while about 1% is of (unmixed) European descent. Because of this Cape Verdeans find it hard to define themselves as either Europeans or Africans. They regard themselves as either both or as unique (i.e. they regard themselves as Cape Verdeans and not as Africans and/or Europeans).

Cape Verde's GDP per capita based on PPP is in the same range as current EU candidates and potential candidates (between Macedonia and Bosnia-Hercegovina). Freedom of speech is at the same level as in any EU country. Democracy is very well implemented and there is alternation of parties in the government. Illiteracy is low when compared with Africa, about 20%. Most of the exports and imports of Cape Verde are for and from the European Union, and the economy is based on services with its currency, the escudo, pegged to the euro.

Although the Cape Verde archipelago is geographically African, there have been similar situations before: Cyprus is an island state which despite being geographically Asian has already joined the Council of Europe and the EU. Furthermore, the Cape Verde Islands are part of the same island group as the Canary Islands (part of Spain) and Madeira Islands (part of Portugal), known as Macaronesia. Despite all this there is currently no political recognition by the EU of Cape Verde as a European state (but unlike in the case of Morocco there is no formal rejection either).

Cape Verde is currently a member of ECOWAS (albeit not yet participating in all of its activities) — an African regional bloc with aims for internal integration similar to those of the EU, so that membership in both organizations at the same time is impossible.

Israel

The Israeli government has hinted several times that a EU membership bid is a possibility, but the EU itself proposes instead a closest possible integration, "just short of full membership". Faster advancement of such plans is somewhat hampered by the current instability in the Middle East. Much international criticism of the occupation of the Palestinian territories also comes from European capitals and the occupation would certainly not pass European human rights standards; general public opinion of Israel is also particularly poor within the EU.

The European Council has not been asked to take a stance regarding whether or not Israel is an European state, but similar circumstances to Morocco (being geographically outside Europe and without exceptional features such as CoE membership) will most likely preclude its inclusion as a full member into the EU as well. However it can obtain a large degree of integration through the current and future EU Neighbourhood Policies — the Spanish foreign minister Moratinos spoke out for a "privileged partnership, offering all the benefits of EU membership, without participation in the institutions"). On 11 January 2005, industry commissioner and vice president of the commission Günter Verheugen even suggested the possibility of a monetary union and common market with Israel.

An argument for the inclusion of Israel into the EU as a full member is that it has a mostly European (or perhaps Europeanised) culture and thus forms an exclave in a huge Arab area. Israel also has a GDP per capita similar to many European countries. Allowing Israel into the EU would, however, create a precedent for other non-European countries to apply for membership, which most Europeans find rather undesirable.

Notes

Template:Ent According to the official website of the European Commission, the signature of the Accession Treaty of Romania and Bulgaria "marks the completion of the fifth enlargement of the EU". Consequently, the enlargement in 2004 was only the first part of the Fifth Enlargement.

See also

• Treaty of Accession 2003
• Treaty of Accession 2005
• Chronological overview of the countries bordering the European Union
• Statistics relating to the EU enlargement
• European Empire

External links

• enlargement website
• BBC News: inside Europe: EU enlargement
• Caucaz.com : Weekly online publishing interviews and reports about the New Neighbourhood Policy in EU about South Caucasus. Available in English and French